Marlins vs Phillies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet the First Five Innings in Philly (Wednesday, September 7)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Bailey Falter #70 of the Philadelphia Phillies.
- The Miami Marlins head to Philadelphia to face the Phillies in a division matchup.
- The Phillies are solid favorites at home (-165) with starter Bailey Falter on the mound.
- Doug Ziefel previews the matchup and breaks down how to bet it below.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||6:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Phillies took game one in style last night as Jean Segura secured the victory with a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth. However, tonight’s matchup may look very different as we have a pair of lefties set to face off.
Trevor Rogers has had a rough 2022 campaign as he enters this outing with a 5.57 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. He has also seen this Phillies lineup on multiple occasions this season, and it has not gone well for him. His underlying metrics point to him having some positive regression, but it remains to be seen whether the tide will begin to turn tonight.
Opposing him will be Bailey Falter, who has done the opposite of what his last name implies with a great month of August. He made three starts and held a 2.45 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He now gets one of the most desolate offensive teams in the league.
Will his success continue? Let’s take a closer look to find out.
Marlins Hitters Will Likely Struggle
Left-handed pitching has been the kryptonite of the Marlins this season. Their struggles against lefties are well documented, and their numbers just bolster the fact. Miami has the lowest batting average against lefties in the majors as they are hitting just .199 on the season. They also happen to have the lowest strikeout rate at 28.6%, which is over two percentage points higher than the team behind them.
While Falter has struggled mightily against right-handed hitting, this Marlins lineup presents almost no threats on the right side of the plate. Perhaps the only guy who could do damage is Garrett Cooper.
Still, Falter’s recent run suggests that he’s figured out how the handle righties, mainly when he contained some of the best right-handed hitters in the National League when he faced the New York Mets.
Falter is not a pitcher we would ever jump at the chance to back, but this is a spot where he is trending in the right direction, and he has the best possible matchup for a left-handed pitcher. So look for him to keep the Marlins bats in check.
Phillies Lineup Has Rogers’ Number
In the open, I alluded to Rogers’ struggles this season. He has dropped off hard from a breakout campaign in 2021, where we saw him hold a 2.64 ERA and strikeout nearly two batters per inning. We have seen flashes of that version of him at times this season, but they have not come against this Phillies team.
As you would expect, Rogers struggles with righties and has done so, in particular, this year. He’s allowed them to hit .299 and hold a .498 slugging percentage. If this year’s trends continue, we could see some of the Phillies’ best bats add to those gaudy numbers.
In three starts against Philadelphia this season, Rogers has allowed 15 earned runs on 16 hits in 11 innings pitched. They have done all that damage while only hitting two home runs off him.
However, the Phillies have picked on all lefties this season, and Rogers just happens to have been a repeat victim. Philadelphia enters this matchup ranking fifth in batting average, fourth in wOBA, and seventh wRC+ against lefties on the season. Given how well they’ve hit lefties, and Rogers especially, they should do damage against him once again.
This lefty-lefty matchup is not exactly a marquee one, but it is clear which side it favors. Falter has finally begun to figure it out at the major league level and now has another excellent matchup to continue his hot streak.
On the other side, Rogers has been the mode of inconsistency this season. We’ve seen him go from one extreme to another, and all the data suggests that he’s bound to get hit around.
While he may make adjustments to his approach as this is the fourth time around, the Phillies have been too good this season to be held silent. So back them to be up halfway through this one.
Pick: Phillies F5 ML -165