The weather is starting to warm up, which means home runs should be aplenty in the coming weeks. That and the fact that baseballs may be juiced again.
Last week was another successful week for this series as Ketel Marte hit a home run to cash a +376 ticket. That brings our YTD up to 5-4, +1.7u. For reference, each home run bet is tracked as .1u.
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:40 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Rays vs Royals MLB Player Prop
Yandy Diaz
Home Run (+532)
There aren’t many power hitters in this Rays lineup aside from the scalding-hot Junior Caminero, who has now homered in five straight games. But Caminero is not the only Ray that has been unstoppable at the plate.
Yandy Diaz was otherworldly in June, hitting .385. His underlying metrics back just how dominant a season he is having at age 34, too. While the power has not been there in June — just one HR vs. seven in May — I’m not too worried about that.
Diaz is one of the best pure hitters in MLB. He doesn’t swing and miss often and ranks in the 97th percentile of all qualified hitters in xBA. His xSLG also sits at .465, his highest since 2022.
The odds are just a bit too long for Diaz here given the matchup. Seth Lugo takes the mound on Wednesday, and to say that he’s fallen off a cliff is an understatement. The right-hander ranks in the 11th percentile or worse among all qualified pitchers in xBA (.278), chase rate (25.5%) and whiff rate (17.9%).
Despite having a deep arsenal, none of the pitches are overpowering. Lugo struggles not only to limit fly balls, but he’s been barreled at a 10.4% clip. That’s the second-worst of his career, just slightly better than 2025.
If xERA is any indication of regression, Lugo should be hit with it soon. The right-hander has a 4.18 ERA, yet his xERA sits over a run higher at 5.27. Much of that has to do with his HR/FB rate, which sits at a career-best 8.7%.
That number should rise in the coming months, especially as the weather improves. For what it’s worth, Lugo has allowed 3+ home runs in two of his four June starts.
So pick your Ray to do some damage. Caminero’s odds are way too low for me, so I’m happy to take a stab at Diaz here.
Pick: Yandy Diaz Home Run (+532, DraftKings)
Reds vs Brewers MLB Player Prop
Jackson Chourio
Home Run (+390)
Speaking of overrated pitchers due for negative regression, hello Andrew Abbott!
While the gap between his ERA and expected metrics isn’t as massive as Lugo’s, Abbott’s xERA is a career-worst 4.84. Beyond his extension, there isn’t anything on his Baseball Savant page that ranks him above the 50th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Abbott relies heavily on his four-seam fastball that sits below 93 miles per hour. That is a dangerous formula against big-league hitters, specifically righties. He is also an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the home run issues have followed – Abbott has allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts.
The splits against right-handed hitters are particularly concerning. Of the 63 hits Abbott has allowed to right-handed hitters, 12 have left the park (19%). Overall, 30% have gone for extra bases.
That brings me to Jackson Chourio.
The 22-year-old superstar hit .319 with 10 home runs in the month of June. He is a lefty specialist, too, sporting a .333 average with four home runs in 57 at-bats (.966 OPS).
Chourio’s underlying metrics have taken a significant step forward from last year. He is barreling the ball at a career-high 14.4%, up nearly five percentage points from last season. Chourio currently has career-best xSLG (.480), hard-hit rate (48.1%), and walk rate (7.4%).
Wednesday sets up to be another big day for the Milwaukee bats, and at this current price, I’m happy to add Chourio to my betting slate.
Pick: Jackson Chourio Home Run (+390, bet365)
Marlins vs Rockies MLB Player Prop
Heriberto Hernandez
Home Run (+360)
Ah yes, the perfect ‘Who the hell is that guy?’
One look at Heriberto Hernandez’s numbers and you’d likely pass. A .219 average and a slugging percentage below .400?
But when you dig deeper, Hernandez becomes a great buy-low candidate.
Despite barreling the ball slightly less than last season (8.8% vs. 11%), Hernandez is on pace to set a personal best in home runs. Much of that has to come with the jump in hard-hit rate (48%, 84th percentile of qualified hitters).
If you look at his rolling hard-hit and fly-ball rates at FanGraphs, you see that he’s been particularly unlucky. Despite being in a 1-for-16 skid, Hernandez is hitting the ball hard and in the air.
Hernandez swings often and swings hard. His strikeouts can pile up, but when he makes contact, the ball often flies. That’s exactly what we want against a pitch-to-contact arm in Kyle Freeland.
Freeland’s numbers are eye-poppingly bad, and it’s not just because he pitches at Coors half the year. The soft-tossing southpaw is sporting career-worsts across the board in 2026, including xBA (.299), barrel rate (11.2%) and xERA (5.85).
He is also a home run machine. Since the month of May, Freeland has allowed a home run in 14 home runs in 10 starts. He has allowed 2+ home runs in five of those 10 starts.
In general, all but one of the 16 home runs Freeland has allowed came against right-handed hitters.
I’m happy to buy low on Hernandez, as the underlying data suggests positive regression is coming for the 26-year-old.
