Mets vs Astros Odds & Prediction: How to Fade Tylor Megill
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Pitcher Tylor Megill #38 of the New York Mets
- The Astros and Mets are fighting for a series win after splitting their first two games.
- Mets starter Tylor Megill could be a good fade candidate because of his strikeout total for the game.
- Below, check Tony Sartori breaks down the game and his prop betting angle for the pitcher.
Mets vs Astros Odds
The third and final game of this interleague series gets underway on Wednesday with the AL West's Houston Astros hosting the NL East's New York Mets at Minute Maid Park.
These clubs split the first two meetings in this series. Will Houston defend its home diamond, or can New York pull off the road upset?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Mets vs. Astros betting pick and prediction, for Wednesday.
Right-hander Tylor Megill is slated to take the mound for the New York Mets, and he is a good fade candidate in this matchup.
Through 14 starts, Megill possesses a 4.83 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 18th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Additionally, Megill's strikeout metrics are not promising, ranking in the 25th percentile or lower in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate.
While his fastball carries some solid heat, his breaking stuff basically, for lack of a better phrase, does not break.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Megill has recorded fewer than five strikeouts in 10 of his past 13 starts.
By the Houston Astros' standards, it has been a poor start to the season as they sit in third place of the AL West just six games over .500.
A big part of this step back for the reigning World Series champions is their performance at the plate.
Entering Wednesday, Houston ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS. However, one thing the Astros have done well is avoid striking out.
When facing right-handed pitching, Houston ranks 12th in K%. Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup for the Astros, six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22%.
Mets vs Astros Betting Pick
Four of the past six starting pitchers whom Houston has faced have stayed below five strikeouts thrown. The two that went over? Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
No offense to Tylor Megill, but he is not Scherzer or Verlander, or anywhere near them.
Finally, New York went through only one bullpen arm in Tuesday's 4-2 loss. So if Megill has a poor start to this game, which is certainly likely, then Buck Showalter will probably head to the bullpen quickly, especially with an off-day on Thursday.