Mets vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Why Underdog Atlanta is Worth the Risk (Tuesday, July 12)

Mets vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Why Underdog Atlanta is Worth the Risk (Tuesday, July 12) article feature image

Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: David Peterson (Mets)

  • After winning the opening game of this NL East series as an underdog, the Mets look to do it again on Tuesday evening against the Braves.
  • David Peterson takes the mound for New York while Atlanta will send Spencer Strider to face a tough Mets lineup.
  • Jules Posner explains why backing the underdog is the play... again.

Mets vs. Braves Odds

Mets Odds+140
Braves Odds-165
Time7:20 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After taking game one on Monday night, the New York Mets look to clinch a series victory over the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday.

Max Scherzer put the Mets on his back in game one and carried them to a 4-1 victory on the road, increasing their division lead by a game.

The Mets came into Monday night's matchup as the underdog and most publicly available data also had the big money moving toward the Braves prior to the game. However, the Mets came out and defied the sharps with a game one win.

David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets, and he'll be facing off against young fireballer Spencer Strider. Strider already has a huge advantage in the mustache department.

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Does Mets' Peterson Own Favorable Matchup?

Peterson has a tough task ahead of him, as he takes on a tough Braves lineup at home. The Braves have a lot of big name talent on offense — especially from the right side of the plate — and they've developed a reputation as lefty killers.

However, over the past month, the Braves are in the bottom half of the league in terms of team wRC+ at home against LHP. Additionally, they're only the 16th-best offense against LHP at home in terms of wRC+ this season.

The numbers show that the Braves really excel against LHP on the road and at home, they're slightly below average.

Peterson also seems to pitch much better on the road than at home. In his six road starts this season, Peterson has a 3.14 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 3.41 xFIP.

This is a big start for Peterson and it will be interesting to see if the Braves' home offense against LHP wins out over him on the road.

Braves' Strider Faces Tough Task

Strider has bounced back from the worst start of his 2022 campaign in a big way. After getting knocked around at home by the San Francisco Giants, Strider only gave up one earned run over his next three starts.

Furthermore, two of those starts were at home, and in those two starts, Strider shut down both the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers — two of the better offenses in the league.

Strider will be taking on a Mets offense that has not only been one of the better offenses on the road against RHP over the past couple of weeks, but they've been one of the better offenses on the road against RHP this season.

If Strider were to get in trouble, the Braves' bullpen has been a little shaky over the past couple of weeks. They have a 3.20 ERA over that stretch — good for 12th in MLB — but their FIP sits at 4.88, which is the eighth highest in the league over that same period of time.

Mets-Braves Pick

All around, the Mets seem to have a couple distinct advantages — despite the Braves having much more curb appeal. The Braves were hot coming into the series, and their moneyline sits at -160.

The Mets' moneyline has some appeal, given they may actually have the edge in this matchup. Locking in +140 odds on a first place team is very tempting.

This game seems to be much more of a coin flip than the openings odds would suggest. The Mets are still the top team in the NL East and at least for the day, the Mets have better numbers in all of the significant areas.

Mets moneyline is worth the risk and could be played anywhere in plus money.

Pick: Mets ML +140

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