Friday MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Mets vs. Brewers: Target Total in Milwaukee (Sept. 24)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Kolten Wong.
- The Mets look to play spoiler Friday and continue the Brewers' losing streak.
- Milwaukee's magic number in the NL Central is three, while New York is all but out of the postseason race.
- Tanner McGrath breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick below.
Mets vs. Brewers Odds
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Mets and the Brewers have both made this a meaningless baseball game.
New York is out of the NL East race, while Milwaukee has virtually clinched the NL Central.
However, the great thing about gambling is it can turn a meaningless September baseball game into a thrill-a-minute joyride. Let’s find some good betting angles for this game, and then get ready to enjoy.
Mets’ Collapse Almost Complete
The Mets have lost their last three series, are 2-8 in their last 10 combined games, and are capping off an unbelievable second-half collapse.
The Mets followed up their 48-40 first half with a 25-39 second half. Jacob deGrom hasn’t played since July 7 and he leads the team in WAR. They’ve scored three runs or less in half of their September games.
However, the offense has been knocking the ball around at least. Behind Francisco Lindor and Javy Baez, the Mets have posted a top 10 wRC+ in September (112).
But this isn’t a celebration of them, it’s more an obituary for the Metropolitans. Hopefully, Lindor’s hot streak can continue into next season, and maybe they’ll re-sign Baez.
The Rookie Tylor Megill takes the mound for New York, coming off a fine rookie season. He mostly underperformed his expected stats (4.57 ERA, 3.82 xFIP), but there’s lots of room for positive regression.
Megill is a straight fastball pitcher, throwing a four-seam almost 60% of the time. He keeps it in the zone, and he posted high strikeout numbers as a result. He’ll finish his first full MLB season with a K/9 above 10, after posting a 16.20 K/9 in Double-A during 2019.
Milwaukee Close to Clinching Central
Milwaukee has lost five straight, but I am really not worried. The Brewers still have a 7.5 game lead over St. Louis with only nine games left to play. While the Cardinals pulled off a mighty four-game sweep of the Brewers (while capping off a 12-game win streak), it likely won’t change the playoff seeding.
I’m a little worried about the bullpen, which has posted the fifth-worst FIP of any relief unit during September (5.26). However, the Milwaukee relief corps’ xFIP during that time (4.18) indicates positive regression, which is a good sign heading into October.
Kolten Wong, Lorenzo Cain, and Rowdy Tellez are all listed on the injury report at the time of this writing. I’d check the lineup card before sending in any wagers on this game, as they could be resting those guys down the stretch.
Eric Lauer takes the mound for Milwaukee, and he’s putting together one of the best months of his career. In four September starts, Lauer has posted a 1.08 ERA while striking out 23 batters in 25 innings. Milwaukee won just two of those games, but it’s a good sign heading into the postseason.
However, unlike Megill, Lauer has mostly overperformed his expected stats all season. The same goes for this month, wherein he’s paired his super-low ERA with a 4.19 xFIP and a measly .155 BABIP.
I desperately want to make a play on this game, but it’s impossible to do so.
I think the Mets probably provide some value at +120, given Milwaukee is packing it in. If I had to pick a side, I would take New York.
However, I’d rather bet the under. The Mets and the Brewers have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven meetings, and neither offense should show a propensity to score in this series opener.
I’ll be playing the under 8 at PointsBet, which is offering us at -105, and I’d play that number to -110.
Pick: Under 8 (-105, play to -110)
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