Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks: Why to Bet Saturday’s Over
Rob Tringali/SportsChrome/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer.
- The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies go to battle in NL East action on Saturday.
- Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Mets, and it will be his third start against the Phillies in six starts.
- Charlie DiSturco explains what this familiarity means in his betting breakdown below.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a postponement on Friday night, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to end their four-game losing streak against the New York Mets. It’s their chance to bounce back from an 8-7 loss in which the Mets scored eight unanswered — including seven in the ninth — to win.
Philadelphia will turn to veteran Kyle Gibson, who will make his second straight start against the Mets.
Facing off against the 34-year-old right-hander is Max Scherzer. He has been lights out aside from his last start, which just so happened to be on Sunday night against the Phillies.
Can Philadelphia put its losing woes aside to knock off a division rival, or will Scherzer prove to be too much as New York continues to roll?
Scherzer to Start Against Phillies… Again
For the third time this season, Scherzer will start against Philadelphia.
There’s a sense of familiarity here between Scherzer and the Phillies. He’s thrown 11 combined innings and has given up five runs on 10 hits and walked four.
Nothing has changed from Scherzer’s game over the last few seasons. His xBA remains .190 and his xERA sits at 2.62, right around the same as his ERA. He’s elite in nearly every metric minus barrel percentage, as hitters have been able to make him pay for any mistakes.
Scherzer did give up three home runs in his last start — two to Kyle Schwarber — but still came out victorious. His fastball has dipped roughly 0.5 miles per hour and hitters own an xBA of .268 against the four-seam, seeing it much better than usual.
The Mets have yet to lose a Scherzer start through five games thus far. Against the Phillies, they’ve scored a combined 19, including the wild ninth-inning comeback.
The Mets are second in both wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching and should continue their success against Gibson on Saturday.
Negative Regression Coming for Gibson?
Once traded to the Phillies last season, Gibson struggled to find his footing, posting a 5.51 ERA and a .263 BAA in the second half of the season.
But in 2022, Gibson has been able to limit the opposition for the most part, ranking in the top 9% in hard-hit percentage while posting a career-low .213 xBA through five starts.
But Gibson should soon begin to regress toward the mean and see some negative regression, and Saturday provides the perfect opportunity for it.
For starters, Gibson’s walk numbers (3.9 BB/9) is the second-worst mark he’s posted in his career. His velocity has dipped a bit, too, and he’s given up plenty of barrels. His FIP sits at 3.93 — a full run higher than his ERA.
Gibson escaped a five-walk outing last start against the Mets a week ago, giving up just one unearned run over 4 1/3 innings.
The Phillies offense should heat up soon, too. Despite their 11-15 record, they rank inside the top 10 in wRC+ and top five in both wOBA and slugging percentage.
The results just haven’t followed suit, and a lot of that has to do with their bullpen that ranks in the bottom five in ERA (4.50). Take the last game for example. Despite leads, the bullpen will remain a liability and could lead to plenty of blown games over the course of the season.
To me, the total for this Saturday evening National League East bout is too low.
While Gibson has been solid to start the season, he pitches to contact and has been struggling with his walks. He now draws a red-hot and confident Mets offense that has already seen him once before, and they should get to him early.
Tack on the fact that Philadelphia is seeing Scherzer for the third time this season just one month in, and I think the sense of familiarity should result in yet another high-scoring affair. In both of Scherzer’s prior starts, the Mets and Phillies have combined for 15 or more runs.
I do think the Mets hold the upper hand in this matchup, but I’m not confident enough to take a side here. Instead, I think we’re getting a discount on the over seven.
While unders ran rampant early on in the season, totals have begun to even out over the last couple of weeks.
This is a perfect opportunity to hop on an over and back two offenses that have been hitting the ball well against pitchers they’ve already seen before this season.
Back the over at Citizens Bank Park in this division rivalry that should be one of the most entertaining games on the MLB slate.
Pick: Over 7 (-110 | Play to -120)