Mets vs Phillies Odds & Prediction: Bet for NL East Finale (5/16)

Thursday, May 16

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB Network

New York Mets Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line (Spread)
+126	8.5 -115o / -105u	+1.5 -160

Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line (Spread)
-150	8.5 -115o / -105u	-1.5 +135

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Mets vs Phillies odds for Thursday's series finale at Citizens Bank Park have the Phillies listed as -135 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 runs (-115o / -105u). For my Mets vs Phillies prediction, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for the conclusion of this NL East clash and get into my Mets vs Phillies pick for Thursday.

New York Mets

The Mets hand the ball to left-hander Jose Quintana on Thursday night, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through eight starts this season, Quintana is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as the left-hander ranks in the fourth percentile in xERA, second percentile in xBA and 14th percentile in hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team Quintana possesses a fade-worthy 7.20 ERA against in the last two meetings.

There were 12 or more total runs scored in each of those outings.

The good news for Quintana is that he might get a good amount of run support as the Mets are slated to go against right-hander Taijuan Walker. Through 106 career plate appearances against Walker, this current New York lineup boasts a .268 xBA, .470 xSLG and .347 wOBA.

Philadelphia Phillies

Despite a 3-0 record through his first three starts this season, Walker possesses a troubling 4.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. There were nine or more total runs scored in all three of those outings.

Like Quintana, Walker profiles as one of the worst pitchers in baseball, at least analytically. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA, 17th percentile in xBA and first percentile in barrel rate.

Another similarity to Quintana is Walker's recent struggles against Thursday's opponent, posting a 4.15 ERA over his past two starts against the Mets. Even if he gets chased early, we shouldn't put too much faith in Philadelphia's bullpen to bail him out considering that its relief pitching ranks 20th in ERA.

The pitching staff is likely to get an abundance of run support as the Phillies rank in the top five of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Mets vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

Philadelphia's success at the dish is likely to continue against Quintana, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .269 xBA, .470 xSLG and .335 xwOBA against through 146 career plate appearances.

Neither starting pitcher is worth trusting in this matchup, and with the Phillies' offensive firepower, eight total runs should not be too difficult.

There are only two variables to worry about when it comes to backing the over in this contest. First, the Mets on offense haven't been consistent this season. However, their underlying metrics across 106 career plate appearances against Walker are promising.

Secondly, the Mets' relievers are performing well, but Philadelphia's poor bullpen should serve as a good counter.

Pick: Over 8 (-120 at FanDuel)

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