The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on September 24, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Dodgers are favored by -174 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction
- Padres vs Dodgers Pick: Padres ML +146 | Bet to +145
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on San Diego to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +146 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -174 |
- Padres vs Dodgers moneyline: Padres +146, Dodgers -174
- Padres vs Dodgers over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Padres vs Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+128), Padres +1.5 (-154)
Padres vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Nick Pivetta (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Tyler Glasnow (RHP, LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.30/2.91 | ERA / xERA | 3.46/2.94 |
| 2.33/3.52 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93/2.97 |
| 23.3% | K-BB% | 24.2% |
| 32.5% | GB% | 40.8% |
| .276 | BABIP | .240 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 106 | Location+ | 96 |
Padres vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview, Expert Pick
After missing most of the season, Nick Pivetta has returned for seven starts with his velocity intact at 94 mph and a 23.3 K-BB% that would be the best of his career, as would be his 35.9 HardHit%.
Although he’s held a K-BB above 19% each of the previous three seasons, his worst and only time below 20% being last season, his first with San Diego, Pivetta has had hard hit rates above 43% in three of the previous four seasons and double digit barrel rates for three straight seasons. 9.0% Barrels/BBE this year would mark his second lowest rate since leaving Philly.
Tyler Glasnow has made only 12 starts and been even more exceptional with a 24.2 K-BB% and 39.2 HardHit% (8.5% Barrels/BBE), all of which align with career rates.
These pitchers have very similar small sample numbers this season, though I have to give Glasnow at least a slight edge for his larger body of superior work.
With the Dodger lineup fully healthy (or at least present) again, we’re looking at a projected nine averaging a 118 wRC+ on the road, 119 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, we’re also looking at their San Diego counterparts averaging a 115 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Xander Bogaerts (95) and Jake Cronenworth are the only below average Padres against RHP this year. As much as I didn’t expect to see Samad Taylor (156), Ty France (146) and Luis Campusano (129) leading the charge, just about everyone else started so poorly, that it’s a victory to have them all reach 100 by the end of the season.
Jackson Merrill (152 wRC+ L30 days) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (133) have really turned their season around.
While the Dodgers project a solid defense (8 FRV), the Padres project 23 FRV better.
These teams also have the 2nd (Dodgers) and 3rd (Padres) best bullpen estimators over the last 30 days with BARTOLO ranking them 3rd (Dodgers) and 4th (Padres) in their season numbers.
Projected lineups are even separated by just 1 BRR (Base Running Runs).
I’m failing to see the separation that makes the Dodgers a significant favorite here. I have them closer to 55% (full game and F5), perhaps even less if Ohtani is still physically compromised.
The great caveat here is that the Padres and Dodgers have only played two on Wednesday night as this is being written and if San Diego should win, they may not be playing for much, though Wild Card seeding (all three spots) is still completely up for grabs.
Yet, so is the number one spot in the National League, should the Dodgers and Brewers look to compete for it.
Although I’m conflicted between calling this a lean or posting it as a play right now, with Novig currently floating 38.5% (or +160), I’m going to aggressively fire here on matchup alone without being sure of the stakes.
I might advise a bit more caution for those playing this on a more traditional sportsbook without the ability to trade out as easily.
Pick: Padres ML +146, 0.5u | Bet to +145
