Mets vs. Red Sox Betting Odds, Weather Report (July 27): Wind at Fenway Moving Over/Under
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Fenway Park
Mets vs. Red Sox Betting Odds, Weather Report
|Red Sox Odds||-102|
|First Pitch||7:35 p.m. ET|
The Mets and Red Sox have gotten off to similar starts in the 2020 regular season. Each team won on Opening Day, only to back up the victory with two straight losses.
Of course, one was playing against the Orioles — winners of 57 games in 2019 — while the other was playing the 97-win Braves.
In any case, oddsmakers are expecting a tight one at Fenway tonight. In fact, each side has been considered the favorite at some point since the line opened — it’s currently the Mets holding that title at -112.
But while the moneyline has certainly been shifted, it’s the over/under that’s been the more interesting story throughout the day, as its movement has been for a very specific reason: the weather.
A mix of hot weather and wind is expected in Boston this evening, with that wind blowing straight out to center at 8-10 mph throughout the game. As you might expect, that leads to a higher projected total.
As such, oddsmakers have bumped what was already one of the day’s highest over/unders up from an opener of 10.5 to 11.5 (granted, the under is listed at -122).
There’s good reason for that, too. Since 2005, in games where the wind has blown out to center at average speeds of 8 mph or more, the over has gone 1139-1009-119 at the closing number, winning 87.3 units for bettors over that span for a 3.9% return on investment. Factor in an average temperature of more than 80 degrees that win rate bumps up from 53.0% to 55.7% (195-155-25).
And for those struggling with the decision of whether to get behind the trend having missed the line move, consider this: In such games where the total had already risen from its opener by at least a half-run, the closing over rate actually improved a bit (though, obviously, on a smaller sample) to 57-41-8, good for 13.1 units and a 12.4% ROI.
As of Monday afternoon, 68% of bettors accounting for 69% of money have taken the over.