Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, April 14.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-105)
- Atlanta Braves (-144, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -165
- Blue Jays/Brewers, Under 7 (-102, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Diamondbacks/Orioles, Over 8.5 (-104, 0.5u), BetRivers, bet to 9 (+100)
- Guardians/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -110
- Kansas City Royals (+110, 0.75u), Caesars, bet to -105
- Nationals/Pirates Over 9 (-105, 0.5), DraftKings, bet to -120
- Rangers/Athletics, Over 8.5 (-117, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 9 (-105)
- Rays/White Sox, Over 7.5 (+102, 0.5u), Scorebet, bet to -110
- Seattle Mariners (-113, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -130
- Tampa Bay Rays (-127, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to -135
Royals vs. Tigers Picks
Public projection systems are torn on which team they prefer to win the AL Central; ATC, FanGraphs, and OOPSY currently favor the Detroit Tigers, while PECOTA and the Bat X favor the Kansas City Royals.
Based upon how I model out these teams for an individual game, Kansas City projects to have the better 26-man roster, whereas Detroit has the deeper 40-man roster to provide depth over a full season.
If I made the starting pitchers the same in this matchup (with either Cole Ragans or Framber Valdez facing both teams), I would set the line closer to Royals -105, meaning Ragans is worth about 2.2% to the Royals' win probability, relative to the opposing southpaw.
Framber has the better weighted FIP projections, but Ragans has a higher ceiling in any start, with superior strikeout ability (career 20% to 14.7% K-BB%). He's also facing the much more strikeout-prone offense.
The Royals' lineup rates as the slightly superior and deeper unit against left-handed pitching, but also projects to put more balls in play (average projection of 11.8% K-BB% vs. 16.2% K-BB% in the respective lineups).
Lastly, it's worth noting that the Tigers are an extremely popular bet as of Tuesday morning, triggering an Action Labs Pro System on Kansas City, which has generated a 7.2% ROI in divisional matchups since 2005:
While that system isn't predictive on its own, it does suggest the Royals are potentially being overlooked in this spot and may, in fact, be the better team when all players are healthy.
I projected Kansas City as the favorite in both halves. You can bet their first five innings (F5) or the full game moneyline at -105.
Pick: Royals ML (-105 or better)
Marlins vs. Braves Picks
While Reynaldo Lopez has pitched at slightly reduced velocity both this spring and through three starts this season (94.3 mph, down from 94.6), his stuff has mostly looked fine, as his strikeout rate and swinging strike rates both sit within a couple of ticks of his career average. He was cruising in his last start (4 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K) until a fight broke out between Lopez and Jorge Soler.
Lopez projects as the slightly better starting pitcher than Max Meyer (weighted FIP projection 4.07 to 4.17), who seemingly underperformed a 16.8% K-BB% last season (4.73 ERA, 4.78 xERA, 3.51 xFIP), but has struggled with command this season (11.9% walk rate vs. 7.8% career).
Atlanta's offense has been among the best in the bigs (120 wRC+, 3rd; 124, 3rd vs. right-handed pitching), and they project as a significantly better offensive team than Miami (projected 115 vs. 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching). The difference is even more pronounced among the top six hitters in either order (122 vs. 104), which doesn't even include Michael Harris (projected 119 wRC+ vs. righties). The Braves' offense is more patient and powerful (3rd in ISO), whereas Miami relies on steals (2nd) and contact (6th in batting average) to produce runs.
As a result, Atlanta is more likely to win the home run battle.
They should have a more well-rested and better bullpen, too, projecting about a half run better (3.73 to 4.24) on a season-long weighted FIP projection. The Marlins have three tired or fatigued arms (Lake Bachar, Anthony Bender, and Tyler Phillips) in their bullpen for Tuesday.
Behind a starter with shaky command, the Marlins bullpen fatigue could compound the Braves' offensive edge; take Atlanta to -165.
Pick: Braves ML (-165 or better)
Mariners vs. Padres Picks
Michael King has shown concerning signs since returning from a nerve injury in his shoulder last season, posting a 4.45 ERA, 6.84 xERA, 5.08 xFIP, and 7.9% K-BB% across seven starts. King's velocity (93.9 mph) isn't necessarily down over that time, but his pitch modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 89 Pitching+, 4.39 botERA) have taken a dive relative to prior levels (career 101, 104, and 3.66).
As a result, it's difficult to project King near his FIP range (projected 3.92 to 4.14) or K-BB% range (13.2% to 16.5%) when he's performed as a below-average arm since returning from that injury. He's mostly gotten away unscathed (1R, 4 R, 2 R, in his three starts), but if he continues to struggle with command, an offense like Seattle's should take advantage.
The Mariners have not hit the ball all that well yet, but they have produced a high number of baserunners (11.8% walk rate, 5th) that they have failed to cash in. This is one of the more patient lineups in baseball, and they should eventually start putting bats on baseballs. As a reminder, the Mariners' offense was among the best in baseball away from T-Mobile Park last season (116 wRC+, 2nd). While wRC+ accounts for park factor, we may underestimate how much Seattle's home park hurts their overall offensive perception.
Their offense projects to a 118 wRC+ (on average) against righties, compared to Seattle's 111, and with more power. Every bat in the Mariners' lineup projects above-average against right-handed pitching, whereas the Padres have two below-average hitters.
Bryan Woo (3.34 weighted FIP) also projects as the much better arm than King, and Seattle also has a bullpen edge in a matchup of two of the better relief units in baseball; Mason Miller (2.41 weighted FIP) is the best pitcher on either side, but beyond Miller and Adrian Morejon (3.24) the Mariners have five of the top seven arms coming out of either pen.
Take Seattle to -130 in this matchup between the teams I was among the highest and lowest on in the futures market, respectively.
Pick: Mariners ML (-130 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, April 14
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- Angels/Yankees, Over 8.5 (-115, 0.5u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-105)
- Atlanta Braves (-144, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -165
- Blue Jays/Brewers, Under 7 (-102, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -110
- Diamondbacks/Orioles, Over 8.5 (-104, 0.5u), BetRivers, bet to 9 (+100)
- Guardians/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -110
- Kansas City Royals (+110, 0.75u), Caesars, bet to -105
- Nationals/Pirates Over 9 (-105, 0.5), DraftKings, bet to -120
- Rangers/Athletics, Over 8.5 (-117, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 9 (-105)
- Rays/White Sox, Over 7.5 (+102, 0.5u), Scorebet, bet to -110
- Seattle Mariners (-113, Risk 1u), Polymarket, bet to -130
- Tampa Bay Rays (-127, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to -135
