Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Market Too High on Marcus Stroman (Tuesday, September 21)

Mets vs. Red Sox Odds

The New York Mets will head into Fenway Park to begin a short two-game series against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night.

The Mets (73-77) come into the game in third place in the National League East and seven games out of the NL Wild Card Race, while the Red Sox (86-65) hold the top spot in AL Wild Card race ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

With one of their top arms on the mound tonight in Marcus Stroman, should we expect the Mets to take care of business on the road, or will the home team prevail in a game with playoff implications for both sides?

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New York Mets

Stroman will get the nod for the Mets in what will amount to his 32^nd start of the season. Over 169 innings pitched, he’s collected a 9-12 record, 2.88 ERA and an impressive 0.75 HR/9 average. He’s also retiring batters at an 8.04 K/9 clip, the highest of his career thus far.

While his 2.88 ERA is remarkable, there is some reason for concern. His 4.08 xERA is 1.2 runs higher, signifying that there may be some negative regression in the future. In fact, when looking further, Stroman has allowed an alarming 41.3% Hard Hit rate thus far as well, another sign that he’s been quite lucky to have the season-long numbers that he’s earned to-date.

Tonight, those numbers will be put to the test. He’ll take on a Red Sox team that has been one of the best in baseball this season against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .335 wOBA. That ranks as the third-best mark amongst all big-league teams.

Boston Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for the Red Sox in a crucial home start for the Red Sox as they attempt to maintain their lead in the AL Wild Card race. On the surface, Rodriguez has struggled so far this year. Over 142 1/3 innings, he’s compiled an 11-8 record to go along with a well-above average 5.00 ERA.

That said, there is some reason for optimism. His 3.46 FIP is more than 1.5 runs lower than his ERA, indicating that he’s been extremely unlucky so far on the mound this season. He’s also allowing a solid 34.6% Hard Hit rate and 7.5% Barrel rate this year, both much better than his peripheral numbers. Finally, his 10.43 K/9 and 1.20 HR/9 averages are also much closer to the league median than his ERA would indicate.

Rodriguez will have an opportunity to put that to the test here tonight. He’ll face off against a Mets team that has struggled against left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .308 team wOBA, the sixth-worst in all of baseball.

Mets-Red Sox Pick

While Stroman has undoubtedly been the better pitcher this season when compared against Rodriguez, it’s the latter that jumps out as the starter to back in this one.

As highlighted above, Stroman is a prime candidate for negative regression and has the unfortunate task of taking on a Red Sox team that has been one of the best in baseball this season against right-handed pitching. To make matters worse, the Red Sox have also been hot at the plate of-late, averaging 8.2 runs per game over their last five outings.

On the other side, while Rodriguez’s surface numbers – particularly his ERA – are ugly, he’s been extremely unlucky on the season and is due for some positive variance of his own. The Mets poor hitting this year against southpaws should only help to highlight that here tonight.

I think Vegas is overestimating Stroman at the moment and I see value on the Red Sox moneyline at the current number of -145. In fact, I’m comfortable playing this up until around -160 if the line moves between now and the first pitch.

Pick: Red Sox -160 or better