Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, June 15.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+215)
- Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-162)
- Royals vs Nationals Over 9 Runs (-112)
- Reds F5 Moneyline (-158)
- Cubs -1.5 (-102)
- Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Athletics Moneyline (-125)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)
- Jared Jones Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
- Yandy Diaz over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
- Rays vs Dodgers Over 9 Runs (-110)
Marlins vs Phillies Picks
Ryan Gusto vs. Zack Wheeler
The Marlins are riding some kind of hot streak right now, but they'll run into Zack Wheeler just one day after facing Paul Skenes (and beating him, by the way).
Quick overview on Wheeler before we get into Gusto, who is more interesting from a betting perspective. Wheeler has been very good for the Phillies since returning, but it's pretty clear to me that this isn't the same guy who very well could've taken home the Cy Young a year ago if not for the late-season injury.
He's firing strikes on multiple pitches, as always, and his elite 5.8% BB% keeps his WHIP well under 1. But the nastiness factor isn't the same. A 13.6% SwStr% is strong, but not of the league-topping variety of his prime years with Philly.
Wheeler has a 25% K% this year and now has only 53 strikeouts in his 56.2 innings. Less than a strikeout per inning for the big man. His putaway pitch is the splitter with an elite 23% SwStr%, but there has been a lack of confidence in it as it's been used just 12% of the time, with that usage actually trending down of late.
I think the proper projection on Wheeler is between five and six strikeouts, and probably closer to five against a Marlins lineup that does pretty well contact-wise against righties.
Now to Gusto. The Marlins have lost as much elite arm talent to the IL as anybody, so they've been ramping Gusto's innings up to compensate. Last time, he threw 66 pitches, his highest total in the Majors this year.
His fastball velocity naturally dropped as he knew he was going deeper into the game; he averaged 93.5 on the pitch. The usage of the pitch is more important. He dropped that to a season-low 24%, leaning more heavily on the changeup and sweeper.
So what does all of this mean for Gusto tonight? The general rule is that fewer fastballs equals more whiffs. His breakers will get more whiffs than his fastball. But the cost of that is less efficiency and more balls thrown, which leads him into unfavorable counts more often, where he'll have to offer these Phillies some of those 94 mph mediocre four-seamers right when they're sitting on it.
He has problems with lefties. Still no homers surrendered to either side of the plate, but I don't think that stat survives this matchup in Philly. He has just a 17% K% and a 44% GB% against southpaw hitters. The exact thing you don't want to do against this Phillies lineup is let the lefties get you into the air — and that will happen tonight.
It's never hard to say that Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper will go deep; they do that a lot. But it seems like a very good spot for that to happen tonight. They have two lefties available in the bullpen, and they aren't good lefties. One of their best relievers, Calvin Faucher, has pitched in two straight, so we don't expect him to be available for this one.
I think it's long ball o'clock for the home team in the City of Brotherly Love.
So my leans would be:
- Wheeler Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Gusto Over 4.5 Strikeouts
- Schwarber Home Run
- Harper Home Run
Picks: Schwarber Homer (+215), Wheeler Under 6.5 K (-125), Gusto Over 3.5 K (-162)
Royals vs Nationals Picks
Mitch Spence vs. Andrew Alvarez
Who versus who? Not exactly an SP showdown in DC tonight. Let's check 'em up.
Mitch Spence
- All but one outing this year has come in Triple-A, where he went for a 6.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18% K%, and a 6% BB%
- Threw three innings on June 5th and one inning on June 12th in AAA
So this is an opener role for Spence. And I have no idea how the Royals intend to cover nine innings in this one. Per our BARTOLO tool, the Royals are without long man Mason Black for this one, leaving just five definitely available arms, none of whom are truly stretched out for multiple innings.
The Nationals are going to see a ton of different looks tonight, but few of them will be against talented MLB pitchers. So you have to like their chances. In these spots, though, it's tough to narrow in on a single-hitter matchup since you really don't know what pitchers they'll see.
Andrew Alvarez (LHP)
- He's served as a starter and a long relief guy this year for the Nats, ending up with a decent but not great 15% K-BB%, 3.70 ERA, and a bad 1.40 WHIP
- He walked five last time out on his highest pitch count of the year (90) and has a very poor 38.8% Ball% for the season
- Ground ball pitcher with a 55% GB% overall (58% to RHB, 48% to LHB)
- Throws non-fastballs primarily with 30% usage of the slider and 28% usage of the curveball, which is his best pitch (a pretty elite 122 MLB Data Warehouse grade on that uncle charlie)
He's coming off of his two longest outings of the year, as the Nationals are taking anything they can get bulk-wise to try to cover all of these games they have to play with one of the worst pitching staffs in the league.
The Nats bullpen isn't in much better shape than KC's. They have the league's lowest strikeout rate for non-SPs, and they team that up with a double-digit walk rate from those same arms.
You can do whatever you want as a bettor, but I wouldn't advise singling out any individual hitters in this one. It's going to be a mix-and-match of a ton of different arms in this bad boy.
But you have to like each offense's chances. There are very few MLB-caliber arms that will be throwing the ball in this one.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-112)
Mets vs Reds Picks
Tobias Myers vs. Chase Burns
Tobias Myers gets the ball for the Mets in Cincy. His last three outings have come in Triple-A, where he threw fewer than three innings each time.
So it's a bullpen-heavy attack for the Mets. But they'll hope to get three innings from Myers nonetheless as they open a series. It's always tough to open a new series on Monday after playing at least three straight over the weekend, since no MLB team gets a weekend day off besides weird circumstances.
Myers throws a lot of strikes, but doesn't have much whiff ability with a 19.5% K% and a 9.7% SwStr% on his big league record in 2026. He's a fly ball pitcher who throws 50% four-seamers, and in this case, it's a very poor fastball with a 90 Stuff+ and 7.7% SwStr%.
Fortunately for Myers and company, the Reds don't have a great-looking lineup with Elly De La Cruz still on the shelf. They're hitting .227 with a poor .309 xwOBA over the last two weeks without their best player.
The Myers plus bullpen approach just might get by in this case, although a couple of homers from the Reds is a likely thing to happen in this small ballpark.
Chase Burns is fantastic. He's the #12 SP in the game per BARTOLO with a neat little 2.94 xERA on the year and a K-BB% just a hair under 22%:
And Burns seems to be getting better as the year goes on. Over his last five starts, he has a 35% K% with a 6% BB% and just three homers allowed. The fastball is great, and the slider is one of the best pitches in the entire league.
He really doesn't need anything else. He's been better against lefties this year with a 32% K% and a .266 xwOBA allowed, and he's elite against the righties as well, just not quite as good (26% K%, .263 xwOBA)
We have the Reds at home, with a massive pitching advantage, available at -136 on the moneyline. That seems like a steal to me.
I'd rather go to the first five innings market to put the maximum amount of weight on the starting pitcher advantage that the Red Legs possess.
Pick: Reds First Five Moneyline (-158)
Rockies vs Cubs Picks
Michael Lorenzen vs. Shota Imanaga
The Road Rockies matchup here for Imanaga and the Cubs. That's always a juicy spot for pitching. The Rockies did just score 23 (count 'em, 23) runs in Vegas yesterday in "Super Coors", but the flight to Chicago coming down from an even higher elevation than Coors sets them up for a pretty big Monday letdown.
Sometimes the best bets are the simple ones. Imanaga bounced back from a brutal stretch last time out, throwing five innings of shutout ball with seven strikeouts against these here Rockies in Coors.
Now he gets to see them again in the friendly confines. We saw him go heavily to his fastball in that start with a season-high 61% usage of the pitch. I doubt he takes that same approach here with the different venue, and maybe that was all a setup for him to drop a bunch of splitters on them in this back-to-back.
The Wrigley wind has been less than favorable to Imanaga; he's given up 12 of his 17 homers at home, nine of those in the last three starts there. This game being at a 9.5 O/U shows us that we're not expecting any cheap homers, and quite possibly the opposite. So it's a pretty good matchup for Shota.
The Cubs offense gets another look at Lorenzen, who they scored just one run on last week in Coors. Lorenzen struck out seven in that start, a season high. That's just baseball for you. Anything can happen on any given day, and it makes trying to predict this stuff pretty frustrating at times.
However, the venue is the sticking point here. I like backing Imanaga in this one as the Rockies are in this weird spot coming down from the elevation of Vegas to Wrigley without any big winds benefiting the bats.
Picks: Cubs -1.5 (-102), Imanaga Over 6.5 K (+106)
Pirates vs Athletics Picks
Jared Jones vs. J.T. Ginn
The Pirates flew from Pittsburgh to Sacramento yesterday to get there for this series. Things aren't great for the Bucs right now, as their pitching has fallen off, key offensive injuries have hurt them and the bullpen has been a huge problem all year long.
They'll turn to Jared Jones in this one. Jones is making his fourth start after coming back from a missed 2025 season due to elbow surgery. They're being careful with him thus far, limiting him to 77, 74, and 75 pitches.
The story with Jones is that he has great stuff with the four-seamer and slider, but he walks some guys and leaves a lot of very hittable pitches out over the plate.
We've already seen that problem with his fastball. It averages 98.8mph of velo and has a high 12.5% SwStr%, but he's given up a huge .458 xwOBA on the pitch already (through 88 pitches thrown). He has just 37% GB% on the pitch with 53% GB%.
My guess with Jones is that he'll end up being a 27-28% K% guy with a 9-10% BB% and about a 1.3 HR/9. So that's what we assume for this matchup with the Athletics, and it makes it a pretty bad spot for the young righty.
The Athletics head back to Sacramento for this one, which is a downgrade from where they've been in Vegas for a week – but it's still a great hitter's environment, and they have some real scary lefty power hitters to take on Jones with.
JT Ginn has a 3.15 ERA in the Majors this year, even after giving up five runs in Vegas last week. It's a good matchup for Ginn against a Pirates lineup that doesn't do a whole lot with sinker-heavy righties like Ginn. It seems to me that the way to win games in Sacramento is to be the team that gives up fewer homers. Ginn is the heavy favorite to do that in this matchup.
I think the Athletics win the game. I really like the spot for Nick Kurtz. He does the two things Jones can struggle with — walks and homers. But at the same time, there's a lot of whiff in this Athletics lineup – so I like Jones to get to a handful of strikeouts.
Picks: Athletics -125, Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 H+R+RBI, Jared Jones over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Rays vs Dodgers Picks
Nick Martinez vs. Eric Lauer
We have some winds in LA tonight pushing out 10mph to center field.
And we have two pretty tough lineups going to work against crafty, but hittable pitchers. Nick Martinez's hot start to the season has fallen apart. He's given up 11 earned runs in his last three starts, with just a 14% K% on the season now. That's one of the lowest strikeout rates you'll find from a starting pitcher.
However, Martinez's ERA for the season still sits at a pristine 2.43, helped by a .281 BABIP and an 8% HR/FB, no doubt. But he's been able to generate soft contact with the changeup and do enough to mix up the fastballs to keep guys off balance.
Eric Lauer has been pushed into the Dodgers' rotation because of the injuries to Glasnow and Snell. And he's been okay there. He's given the Dodgers a 2.75 ERA in 16.1 innings, but, like Martinez, his K% is super low at 16%. He just throws a bunch of strikes and lets the defense behind him go to work.
What we have with Lauer is a big splits problem. Righties have hit 11 homers off of him this year with a 12% Brl% and a 15% K%. He has a tough, tough time against right-handed hitting.
That leads us to love the spot for Yandy Diaz. He's one of the top hitters in my matchups model tonight, which sees how hitters have performed in the last couple of seasons against pitches that are most like the ones they'll see tonight.
MATCHUPS MODEL TOP HITTERS
- Shohei Ohtani vs. Nick Martinez: .511 xwOBA
- Yandy Diaz vs. Eric Lauer: .462 xwOBA
- Kyle Tucker vs. Nick Martinez: .461 xwOBA
- Kyle Schwarber vs. Ryan Gusto: .440 xwOBA
- Freddie Freeman vs. Nick Martinez: .428 xwOBA
So that's four of the top five coming from this game. Both teams seem to match up pretty well, and the park and weather are favorable to hitters. You've gotta like the over nine runs in this one, given what we're seeing here.
They're the #1 and #2 team offenses in the matchup model's team summarization. Here are those top offenses:
- LAD .398 matchup-based team xwOBA
- TBR .366 matchup-based team xwOBA
- PHI .355 matchup-based team xwOBA
- MIA .353 matchup-based team xwOBA
- CHC .353 matchup-based team xwOBA
I have two picks for this one.
Picks: Yandy Diaz over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+130), Game Total Over 9 (-110)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 15
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- Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+215)
- Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-162)
- Royals vs Nationals Over 9 Runs (-112)
- Reds F5 Moneyline (-158)
- Cubs -1.5 (-102)
- Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Athletics Moneyline (-125)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)
- Jared Jones Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
- Yandy Diaz over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
- Rays vs Dodgers Over 9 Runs (-110)
