Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Back Gerrit Cole in Subway Series (Saturday, July 3)

Editor's Note: The pitching matchup in Saturday's Mets-Yankees game is set to be Taijuan Walker vs. Jordan Montgomery because of a postponement. Matt Trebby broke this matchup down for Friday's postponed game here.

Mets vs. Yankees Odds

This weekend in a highly-anticipated interleague matchup, the New York Yankees are hosting the New York Mets. The Yankees play in the Bronx which has better hip-hop, and the Mets play in Queens which has better food. But this year for baseball, it is hard to argue over which borough has a better baseball team.

Both teams have strong lineups that are not producing, strong bullpens and strong starting rotations. The difference is that the Mets are in first place in the NL East with a 41-36 record, while the Yankees with a 41-39 record are in fourth place in the AL East. With nearly identical records, strengths, and weaknesses, it is hard to determine who should win between the two teams.

For Saturday’s game, the Yankees are the clear favorite because they are relying on their ace Gerrit Cole. The question is if the Bronx Bombers deserve to be -185 favorites even with Cole on the mound?

No Amazin' Mets Offense

Opposing Gerrit Cole and the Yanks on Saturday afternoon is Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. After opting out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic, Stroman is off to a career year for the Mets in 2021. In 17 starts, Stroman has a 6-6 record with a 2.44 ERA.

However, Stroman also has a 4.53 xERA which is more than two full runs higher than his ERA. Once you adjust Stroman’s ERA for stadium effects, he should be allowing two full runs more per nine innings than he is currently allowing.

Backing up the Stroman is a Mets lineup that is averaging only 3.57 runs per game, while the average team is scoring 4.45 runs per game. Only the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates lineup averages fewer runs per game than the Mets. With 1B Pete Alonso, SS Francisco Lindor and OF Michael Conforto having down years, the Mets are not producing as many runs as they should be producing.

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Cole Gets the Start for Yankees

Even though the Mets have Marcus Stroman pitching for them, the Yankees have a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole. Currently, Cole is a -160 favorite (61.5% implied probability) to win the AL Cy Young Award this year, and for good reason.

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In 16 starts, Cole has a 8-4 record with a 2.66 ERA. Even his xFIP is close to his ERA, as Cole has a 2.87 xFIP. The only concern with Cole is that in his last start against the Boston Red Sox, Cole pitched five innings and allowed five earned runs. However, in 14 of Cole’s 16 starts, Cole has allowed only two or fewer earned runs. Against a weak Mets lineup, I would not be surprised if Cole has a shutout.

Backing up Cole is a struggling Yankees lineup. Currently the Yanks are averaging only 4.11 runs per game which is the 8^th fewest in MLB. Even with DH Giancarlo Stanton, OF Aaron Judge, IF DJ LeMahieu and SS Gleybar Torres, the Yankees are still having trouble creating runs. Outside of Stanton, Judge, and C Gary Sanchez, the rest of the Yankees lineup is not earning their keep.

Mets-Yankees Pick

The Yankees are heavily favored in a game with a low run total. Unfortunately, my model agrees with that assessment as the Yankees should win, and both lineups should have trouble putting runs on the scoreboard.

However, for the first five innings money line odds, there is opportunity with backing the Yankees. With Cole on the mound, the Yankees should be ahead by the end of the fifth inning. At -190 on BetMGM the price is steep, but if it drops to -185 or better, I will back the Yankees first five innings money line.

Pick: New York Yankees First Five Innings Money Line if -185 or better.