The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on September 24, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The Marlins won 6-5 in the first game of this series. Today, we'll have a southpaw pitching duel between Ryan Weathers and Jesus Luzardo.
My Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
- Marlins vs Phillies pick: Under 8 (-110)
My Marlins vs Phillies best bet is Under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Marlins vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ryan Weathers (MIA) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 14-7 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.8 |
| 3.21 / 3.52 | ERA / xERA | 4.08 / 3.45 |
| 3.95 / 4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 3.01 / 3.32 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 13.3 | K-BB% | 20.3 |
| 46.1 | GB% | 42.7 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 103 | Location+ | 111 |
Marlins vs Phillies Preview
Jesus Luzardo recently faced this Marlins lineup with great success, holding them to two runs and five hits in six complete innings, with eight strikeouts.
The Phillies' lefty holds a 3.71 ERA across his past seven outings and should have no problems against a Marlins offense that performs worse versus left-handed pitchers, ranking 23rd in the majors with an 83 rating.
Philadelphia also does worse against LHP, falling from sixth overall in wRC+ to 11th versus southpaws, and they will face Ryan Weathers tonight.
The Marlins pitcher has given up one run or none in four of his seven outings this year.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation to go with the under.
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support", is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10 —sweet spots for scoring volatility. It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between the two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8 (-110, bet365)
Marlins vs Phillies Betting Trends
