The St. Louis Cardinals host the Miami Marlins on July 29, 2025. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
Read our Marlins vs Cardinals prediction and MLB over/under pick below.
My Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction
- Marlins vs Cardinals Picks: Under 7.5 (-104, DraftKings)
Marlins vs Cardinals Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -100o / -120u | +125 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -100o / -120u | -150 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-175); Cardinals -1.5 (+145)
Marlins vs Cardinals Totals: 7.5 (O -100 / U -120)
Marlins vs Cardinals Moneyline: Marlins +125; Cardinals -150
Marlins vs Cardinals Best Bet: Under 7.5
Marlins vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 6.66 / 5.00 | ERA / xERA | 4.33 / 3.92 |
| 4.47 / 4.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.02 / 2.89 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 22.7% |
| 46.3% | GB% | 40.7% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Tanner McGrath’s Marlins vs Cardinals Preview
One of our Bet Labs systems — powered by Evan Abrams — popped for this game.
Silent Sharp Unders targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are playing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, and following this soft signal finds value in fading inflated scoring expectations.
Those “inflated scoring expectations” derive directly from Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara.
The former Cy Young winner has struggled in his post-Tommy John season, posting a 6.66 ERA behind brutal command.
Command is always the last thing to come back after TJ, but it seems like Sandy is finally re-finding the zone. He’s posted a 107 Location+ mark and 4.5% walk rate since June 1st, which has led to much improved results.
Alcantara is a great buy-low candidate in this game.
I feel the same way about Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray.
Gray’s underlying metrics show he’s among the best pitchers in baseball (3.02 FIP, 2.89 xFIP, 22.7% K-BB, 1.19 WHIP), but two brutal recent starts have significantly inflated his numbers (8 ⅓ IP, 22 H, 16 R, 0 BB, 10 K). I suspect he’ll bounce back strong.
Additionally, these two bullpens are white hot. The Cardinals lead all MLB teams in reliever xFIP (3.17) over the past month, while the Marlins rank fourth (3.59).
Our guy Sean Zerillo projects just 7.13 runs for this game, and I'm stoked to bet the Under, as I expect a strong nine-inning pitching performance from both squads.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-104, DraftKings)
