The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 12, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Brewers are favored by -114 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Padres Prediction
- Brewers vs Padres Pick: Fernando Tatis Over 1.5 HRR (-146), Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR (-142)
My Brewers vs Padres best bets are on these Tatis and Chourio props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Padres Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 8 -115o / -105u | -114 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -171 | 8 -115o / -105u | +106 |
- Brewers vs Padres moneyline: Brewers -114, Padres +106
- Brewers vs Padres over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Brewers vs Padres spread: Brewers -1.5 (+141), Padres +1.5 (-171)
Brewers vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Dustin May (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Robbie Ray (LHP, SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 10-7 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.30 / 4.06 | ERA / xERA | 3.24 / 4.58 |
| 3.26 / 3.92 | FIP / xFIP | 4.49 / 4.81 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 8.8% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 34.3% |
| .315 | BABIP | .264 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 102 | Location+ | 91 |
Brewers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
In 115 innings, Brewers’ right-hander Dustin May has largely struggled, having posted a 4.30 ERA throughout his 22 outings this season.
That said, I expect Padres’ superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. to continue his scorching form at the plate with another massive performance on Wednesday afternoon.
Tatis has successfully barreled May’s elite high-velocity sinker and four-seam fastball mix, having hit for extra bases along with a .323 OBP across the two previous encounters — one of which was a home run.
Despite a very rocky start to his 2026 campaign, Tatis has exploded in the latter half of the season, ranking inside the top-5 in OPS post-All-Star break.
While May has done a great job limiting Tatis Jr. in those previous encounters, the Brewers’ righty has struggled with the command of his arsenal, which, in turn, has often forced him to throw high-velocity strikes in the zone, which could prove to be a fatal mistake versus a slugger of Tatis' caliber.
Despite Jackson Chourio having missed a large chunk of the season after suffering an injury in a World Baseball Classic exhibition game, Chourio has come back with a vengeance, having smashed four homers across Milwaukee's last seven games.
Padres’ lefty Robbie Ray has been quite impressive in his first season in San Diego with a 3.24 ERA, but I still expect Chourio to get the best of him.
Ray heavily relies on establishing his four-seam fastball early in counts, at 34 USG%, despite opposing hitters having fared pretty well versus that particular offering with a .362 xwOBA per BARTOLO.
Chourio boasts exceptional bat speed with hard-hit rates that have led to his absolutely demolishing fastballs with an impressive ability to turn on inside pitches.
If Ray can't locate his slider low and away early on in the count, I expect Ray to elevate his four-seam fastball up in the zone. Though that could be problematic, since Chourio's elite barrel-rate metrics can result in some serious damage.
Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
