We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
I wrote about Columbus/Buffalo and Jacksonville/Gwinnett on Action Network earlier in the week, and the analysis there should still play this weekend. Let’s take a look at a couple of different series here.
Norfolk Tides @ Nashville Sounds
Friday, 7:35 PM ET
The Sounds will eventually get going on offense, and I think that’s starting to happen.
Luis Lara is one of Triple-A’s best hitters, while Cooper Pratt had a big game on Wednesday and was productive during Thursday’s doubleheader. Jett Williams had a huge three-run walk-off homer on Wednesday, which should get him going — he’s a former first-rounder who has posted just a .661 OPS this season. Eddys Leonard is red-hot.
Finally, Nashville gets Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio in town for rehab over the next couple of days.
The outlook isn’t as good for Norfolk.
Cade Povich is back in the Majors, and the Tides have struggled in the batter’s box all season.
They’ll have three of their better starting pitchers going this weekend (Carmeron Weston, Trey Gibson, Nestor German), which should keep the odds in check.
Still, Nashville should be able to counter with comparable starting pitchers and a better bullpen — one of the best at the Triple-A level, as the Brewers organization is always stacked with pitching.
While it’ll be contingent on price, I think the Sounds will be a good bet all weekend.
Pick: Nashville Sounds ML
Sacramento River Cats @ Salt Lake Bees
Friday, 8:35 PM ET
The Salt Lake Bees have been one of the worst teams in the PCL over the past few years, mostly because they’re part of the Angels’ dreadful farm system.
So far, this season has been no different.
But there’s some tangible talent starting to come up through the Anaheim farm system, and I think the Bees can start to compete.
Christian Moore has been bashing at the Triple-A level this season (.889 OPS). Denzer Guzman has also crushed the ball. Nelson Rada is starting to look the part. Salt Lake recently signed veteran Trey Mancini, who has always hit at this level. Niko Kavadas has never caught on in the big leagues, but he’s raked Triple-A pitching during his time in Worcester and Salt Lake. Another veteran, Chris Taylor, is not at the bottom of the Salt Lake lineup.
This is a solid team, at least on offense.
Salt Lake still has zero pitching, but Caden Dana will help in the rotation.
The guy to target will be flame thrower George Klassen, who fired off 6 ⅔ innings of one-run ball in his last start. He’s likely to go on Friday night.
Sacramento has a solid team, but the River Cats have been huge favorites in the first three games of this series, and I don’t think there’s that big of a difference between these two squads. I wouldn’t be surprised if they take two of three over the weekend, but I’m happy to take the 1.5 runs.
Pick: Salt Lake Bees +1.5
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
- Nashville Sounds ML (vs. Norfolk, 7:35 PM ET)
- Salt Lake Bees +1.5 (vs. Sacramento, 8:35 PM ET)
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