We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets: How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Durham Bulls
Tuesday, 11:05 AM ET
Jacksonville has a loaded pitching staff, but the Shrimp are just 13-14 because their solid lineup has mostly underachieved.
Braxton Garrett gets the ball on Tuesday, and he’s been borderline unstoppable across his first four starts (23 ⅓ IP, 23 K, 0.77 ERA, 0.51 WHIP). Robby Snelling is likely the best pitcher at the Triple-A level this season, and he should get the ball on Friday.
Behind their pitching staff, the Jumbo Shrimp have one of the league’s best bullpens.
Jacksonville should start hitting soon. The middle of the order is solid (Joe Mack, Kemp Alderman), while Devyison De Los Santos, Maximo Acosta, and Christopher Morel are all returning to the lineup from injury. There’s depth and breakout potential here.
This series is in Durham, and the Bulls have some solid starting pitching options, so we should get playable numbers on the Shrimp. I expect Jacksonville to rattle off a big winning streak soon, and it could start on Tuesday.
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-140, bet365)
Iowa Cubs @ St. Paul Saints
Tuesday, 12:07 PM ET
Neither team has any pitching right now, and these are two of the better Triple-A lineups.
This series should be a slugfest.
St. Paul’s lineup is also likely undervalued, as the Saints have dealt with brutal weather in the first month of the season, which has dragged down their offensive numbers.
Iowa slumped a bit over the past few weeks, but the Cubs are loaded, so I believe their lineup is undervalued as well.
Per my rankings, Iowa’s Pedro Ramirez is the best all-around hitter in Triple-A. He’s hitting .323 with a 1.022 OPS behind seven homers. He’s also well protected in a lineup that features BJ Murray, Jonathan Long, James Trianots, and Kevin Alcantara. Plus, with veterans Dylan Carsona nd Chas McCormick hitting toward the bottom of the order, this Iowa lineup is one of the strongest top-to-bottom among MiLB squads.
The same thing can be said about St. Paul. Alan Roden has been great at the Triple-A level, and he’s surrounded by stud prospects with the Saints, including Kaelen Culpepper, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez — although the best of all those prospects is Walker Jenkins. Plus, the Saints just called up Ben Ross, who was raking at the Double-A level.
Both of these teams are decimated in the pitching department. The Cubs have sent an insane number of pitchers ot the IL this season, while St. Paul already had a brutal bullpen and has also lost two pitchers this past week (Connor Prelipp and Kendry Rojas to the MLB level).
The Over should be good in every game of this series.
Pick: Over 13.5 (-115, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays
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