MLB All-Star Game Expert Best Bets | Picks for NL vs. AL
Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
MLB All-Star Game Odds
|National League Odds|
-122 / +100
|American League Odds|
-122 / +100
The 2023 MLB All-Star Game is set to take place on Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park (8 p.m. ET on FOX), home of the Seattle Mariners.
There are a number of ways to bet the All-Star Game, including the moneyline, over/under and run line.
Sean Zerillo, Action Network senior writer and the engine that runs our daily projections, breaks down his favorite betting pick for the 2023 MLB All-Star Game between the National League and American League below.
All-Star Game Best Bet
In this All-Star matchup, I project the National League as -102 favorites (50.5% implied odds) and would bet their moneyline at +102 (49.5% implied) or better.
Additionally, I set the total at 7.3 runs and would either bet under 7.5 at plus money or over 7 at plus money. However, I doubt that either price comes into actionable range.
The American League has the pitching advantage. I project their pitchers for a 3.48 Model Weighted ERA compared to 3.62 for the National League — a difference of roughly four percent.
Felix Bautista (1.95 xERA) gives the American League potentially their most significant advantage. The Orioles closer and his absurd 50.9% strikeout rate is a free shutdown inning when needed.
However, the National League has the superior group of position players — especially with voted AL starters Aaron Judge and Mike Trout sidelined by injuries.
Against the same pitching staff, I project the NL hitters for an additional 0.44 runs per game compared to the AL — a difference of 11%.
Additionally, as a group, the American League offense is much more effective against left-handed pitching than righties. The NL only has Josh Hader and Justin Steele as left-handed options out of their 'pen and figure to play matchups with those arms.
Conversely, the American League doesn't have a left-handed pitcher on their staff. They will have difficulty gaining a platoon advantage against NL bench bats like Juan Soto (165 wRC+ vs. righties) and Matt Olson (163 wRC+ vs. righties) in late innings.
Take the NL at plus money. Look for their reserve hitters to be the difference late in this contest.
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