MLB All-Star Game Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for the Midsummer Classic at Coors Field (July 13)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: All-Stars Ozzie Albies (from left), Nelson Cruz, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado take a selfie together during batting practice Monday.
- While baseball's stars step away from the season's grind for some rest and festivities, that's not the case for baseball bettors.
- Tonight's All-Star Game presents plenty of opportunities to cash in on which side you think will come away with the win.
- Here are our staff's four best bets for tonight's star-studded exhibition.
The 2021 MLB All-Star Game is here, taking place tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX. As a standalone event, the Midsummer Classic is a great opportunity for the players to take some time off and have a little fun before getting set for the grueling, second half race toward the postseason.
There’s no rest for the weary, however, and there’s no rest for sports bettors, who have ample opportunities to bet on tonight’s showdown between the stars of the American and National Leagues.
Our analysts have identified four best they recommend for tonight’s exhbition, including plays on both sides and a couple of fun props.
Here are our four best bets for tonight’s MLB All-Star Game.
MLB All-Star Game Odds
|Over/Under||11 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings|
Will There Be A Triple – Yes (+110)
Available at DraftKings
Jeff Hicks: Triples have come in streaks in the past decade of All-Star games. One has not been hit since 2015, the last year of a three-year triple streak. Two of those three All-Star games were played in the fields with the largest amount of fair territory: Kansas City and New York (NL).
The No. 1 field in terms of fair territory is Coors Field. It is also ranked fifth among stadiums in Park Factor favoring triples. Two players in the All-Star Game have four triples (Adam Frazier and Shohei Ohtani), and one has five (Ozzie Albies).
Frazier and Ohtani are also starters, meaning they have a better chance to get multiple at-bats. I like this bet at plus money.
National League Moneyline (-115)
Available at BetMGM
Sean Zerillo: I projected the NL pitchers, their starting lineup, and their reserve lineup as a superior group of players compared to the AL across the board.
- Pitching: -0.09 runs allowed per game
- Starting Lineup: +0.19 runs scored per game
- Reserve Lineup: +0.10 runs scored per game
- Defense: +10.9%
As a result, I projected the National League as -130 favorites (56.5% implied), both for the first five innings (F5) and the full game on Tuesday.
I’m comfortable betting both the F5 and full game moneylines to -120 (54.5% implied) at a two-percent betting edge, but I would have a larger bet on the full game moneyline.
I initially bet Over 10.5 when the game total opened, but the line has continued to climb and now sits at a flat 11 (-110 on either side) at most books.
If the total drops back down to 10.5, I would bet the Over to -115. Otherwise, I would pass on the total and stick to a moneyline wager on the senior circuit.
American League Moneyline (+100)
Available at DraftKings
Kenny Ducey: There is not much you can be scientific about when you’re talking about two teams filled with the best players in the game, but I am starting to fall in love with AL team, even without Mike Trout.
The American League has now won the last seven All-Star Games, and 19 of 23, and is generally the superior league. There’s a reason why the consensus is that it’s a harder league to pitch in, and that’s because without a DH and with slightly better offensive talent, pitchers are up against it. It not only means you’re going to see better hitters, but pitchers are going to see a step down in competition, in theory.
Nine American League teams have a wRC+ above 100, which is league average, compared to just five National League teams.
Furthermore, I see some liabilities on the NL side. Nick Castellanos has cooled since his hot start, Nolan Arenado has an xwOBA of .324 (the lowest of any starter) hitting third, and J.T. Realmuto is hitting .221 over the last four weeks. The AL’s starting lineup is objectively better, with a guy like Marcus Semien being totally forgotten about despite playing at an MVP pace.
It is never fun fading the NL considering the league’s pitching talent, but there are too many holes for me to back them. The gap between the hitters on these two teams is noticeable from a numbers perspective.
American League To Score First and Win (+165)
Available at DraftKings
Collin Whitchurch: It’s the All-Star Game, so let’s have a little fun with this prop.
The American League will be the road team in Coors Field, and Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are hitting atop the American League lineup. Xander Bogaerts hitting third is a little strange, but after that we’ve got Aaron Judge, Rafael Devers and Marcus Semien.
Max Scherzer has been great this year and, while he might not have been the first choice as starter, is a worthy one even if he was (somehow?) only an injury replacement. But Scherzer has had terrible home run luck this season, giving up bombs at the highest rate of his career. The game, as I mentioned, is being played at Coors Field.
I love the No Runs First Inning – Yes prop, and would recommend a bet there even if the odds have been juiced up to -152. But I like the American League to win as slight underdogs, too, so let’s have some fun with a positive value bet and assume the AL gets to Scherzer in the first — whether it be through one of those sluggers going deep in the Mile High air or stringing together some hits against Mad Max — and the AL following through with a win.
The NL, as Sean Zerillo has noted, does have an edge in the reserve department, but I like the AL’s late-inning reliever options better with Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Barnes over Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel and Mark Melancon. We obviously have no idea how Dave Roberts or Kevin Cash are going to deploy these guys, but if the game is tight late, I trust Cash and his guys over Roberts and his.
So the bet is for the AL to score first AND to win the game at +165. I would bet that to +160. Here’s to a fun — and profitable — Midsummer Classic.
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