MLB Best Bets: Friday Expert Picks & Predictions (May 10)
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With all 30 MLB teams in action on Friday, May 10, our staff of betting analysts have locked in three MLB best bets, including expert picks and predictions for Twins vs Blue Jays, Nationals vs Red Sox, and Rangers vs Rockies.
Read below for our three MLB best bets for Friday.
MLB Best Bets: Friday Expert Picks & Predictions (May 10)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
| 8:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Blue Jays
By D.J. James
Joe Ryan is coming into his own as the Minnesota Twins Ace.
The 27-year-old righty has a 3.54 ERA and 2.45 xERA while holding an above-average batted-ball profile. His strikeout rate is exceptional (over 28%), and he's walking almost nobody (3.7%).
His opponent will be Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Kikuchi has also been excellent to start 2024. His ERA and xERA are below 3.00. He allows hard contact but boasts above-average walk and strikeout rates, and his groundball rate is much higher than Ryan’s.
That said, the significant gap in this game comes from the offenses.
Minnesota has trounced lefties almost every time it has faced one. The Twins have a 126 wRC+ and .794 OPS against southpaws and many offensive weapons throughout the order.
Toronto’s entire lineup, on the other hand, is struggling in unison. Off of righties, the Blue Jays have a 90 wRC+. Yes, they have a higher walk rate than Minnesota, but that could change.
Although Kikuchi can pitch deep into games and negate the bullpen’s influence on this game, the Blue Jays have a bullpen xFIP of 4.59. The Twins have a 3.51 bullpen xFIP, and getting Jhoan Duran back into the fold is a bonus.
Minnesota holds an edge in two major factions of the game, so bet the Twins from +100 to -120.
Pick: Twins ML (+100)
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Nationals vs. Red Sox
By Tony Sartori
Jim Nantz calls The Masters "a tradition unlike any other".
However, we gamblers know that the real "tradition unlike any other" is fading Patrick Corbin.
We are going to fade him in the strikeout department on Friday evening. His line is set at 4.5, with the under returning +115 at DraftKings. He has failed to surpass the number in his past three starts, and I don't think he will do so in this outing, either.
This season, Corbin ranks in the 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate and ninth percentile in strikeout rate. Yes, Boston certainly has strikeout issues, but that is why we are catching such a generous line.
Furthermore, this current Red Sox lineup possesses a meager 17.9% strikeout rate through 39 career plate appearances against Corbin. Even if the left-hander threw six perfect innings in this game (unlikely), that 17.9% rate translates to approximately 3.22 strikeouts.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Rangers vs. Rockies
By Cody Goggin
Every five days I keep betting Jon Gray’s strikeout under and every five days (at least lately), it hasn’t been hitting.
However, I am still going to fade Gray again and I think his return to Coors Field is a good opportunity for us.
My strikeout model has had great success this year, and Gray represents today's most significant edge.
Gray has a strikeout total of 6.5, and the under is priced at -125 on Fanduel, representing a 55.6% probability of him staying under while my model prices it closer to 83%. The gap is aggressive, but I project Gray for 4.53 strikeouts today with a median of four.
Gray has a 2.50 ERA this season with an xERA of 3.85. He ranks 76th out of 79 qualifying starting pitchers in Stuff+. His average fastball velocity has dipped to 94.6, his lowest mark since 2020.
Gray’s batted ball metrics are all below average. He ranks in the 30th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 45th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 25th percentile in exit velocity allowed. This isn’t a good mixture when traveling to Colorado, even if the Rockies’ offense isn’t potent.
Unfortunately, this matchup is good for Gray outside of the location. Colorado ranks 29th in wRC+ and strikeout rate, which isn’t ideal, but I believe that is why Gray’s total is so high.
Somehow, he has avoided allowing home runs to this point in the season, as he has just a 4.3% HR/FB rate and 0.45 HR/9. These are two of the lowest marks in the league and are far enough away from his career averages that I would expect eventual regression to the mean.
Gray’s strikeout total is too high for what he is as a pitcher. He doesn’t have exceptional stuff and is below average in batted ball metrics, which isn’t a recipe for success at Coors Field. While the Rockies boast a lousy offense, I think they can do some damage against Gray if they can make contact.
I’d take the under 6.5 strikeouts down to -150.
Pick: Jon Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-137)
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