MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Brewers vs Yankees, Padres vs Astros, More (Saturday, September 9)

MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Brewers vs Yankees, Padres vs Astros, More (Saturday, September 9) article feature image

(Photo by Tim Heitman/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Baseball fans will be treated to a full Saturday slate as there are 15 MLB games on the September 9 schedule. The plethora of games presents numerous betting opportunities and our experts have taken full advantage.

Our MLB betting experts have looked over today's MLB odds and identified their best bets and picks. Continue reading as today's best MLB bets are below, including picks on Brewers vs. Yankees and Padres vs. Astros.

Saturday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
2:05 p.m. ET
7:10 p.m. ET
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Brewers vs. Yankees

Saturday, September 8
2:05 p.m. ET ET
Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (+100)

By D.J. James

Wade Miley has been feasting on good fortune, but will be facing the New York Yankees, who have been crushing lefties over the past few months.

Miley has a 3.33 ERA, but a 4.66 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are both great at 87.3 mph and 31.4%, but he's only striking out 15.8% of batters and is walking 7.4%. His ground-ball rate is just 44.6%, which is nearly 8% lower than last season. That's especially notable as he's a pitch-to-contact pitcher.

In relief, the Brewers have a 3.59 xFIP with a 28.2% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate in the past two weeks.

The Yankees fare well against southpaws and that should continue against Miley, who is due for some regression. In the past two weeks, the Yankees have a 99 wRC+, a .715 OPS, a 10.8% walk rate and a 26.9% strikeout rate off of lefties. However, since August 1, New York has a 149 wRC+ and a .909 OPS. The Yankees also have five hitters with a xwOBA over .320 and should be able to manufacture some runs off Miley before he departs.

Miley doesn't strike out many hitters, so the Yankees should get plenty of looks at him. In addition, the Yankees have the third-best Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity this season, which should negate Miley's ability to induce weaker-than-average contact. Expect the Yankees to go over their team total and play that to 5.
Pick: Yankees Over 4.5 Runs | Play to 5

Padres vs. Astros

Saturday, September 8
7:10 p.m. ET ET
MLB Network
Astros Moneyline (-130)

By D.J. James

Cristian Javier has struggled a bit this season, but is still a decent pitcher at times. His main issue, this season, has been keeping the ball on the ground.

Javier owns a 4.65 ERA against a 4.69 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.2 mph and he owns a Hard-Hit Rate of 38%. His ground-ball rate is comparable to his 2022 mark (hovering around 26%), but his strikeout rate has plummeted. He only strikes out 21.2% of batters and is walking nearly 9%.

Seth Lugo, his Saturday opponent, has been pretty lucky with a 4.09 xERA against a 3.49 ERA. Lugo's Average Exit Velocity is 90.3 mph with a 42.8% Hard-Hit Rate. He's striking out 23.4% of hitters and walking 5.4%.

The main differentiator is how these teams hit righties. Houston has a 165 wRC+, a .966 OPS, a 8.3% walk rate and a 12.3% strikeout rate off of righties in the past two weeks. They also five active hitters with a xwOBA over .400, which should be enough to get to Lugo early.

In contrast, the Padres have only three active bats with a xwOBA over .320 off righties in the past two weeks.

Given Houston's major offensive edge, back the Astros to -155.
Pick: Astros Moneyline | Play to -155

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.