Monday MLB Betting: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Cardinals vs. Reds (Aug. 31)
Kirk Irwin/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos
- The Reds are favored over the Cardinals on Monday afternoon, and BJ Cunningham is taking Cincinnati's team total against Dakota Hudson.
- His model projects the Reds for 5.22 runs, and he's focusing on their team total and not the full game over because of St. Louis's offensive inconsistencies.
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds
|Cardinals Odds||+102 [Bet Now]|
|Reds Odds||-120 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9 (-105/-118) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
The Cardinals will try and ride the moment of Adam Wainwright’s complete game on Sunday to get above .500 as they square off with the Reds Monday night. Both teams trail the Cubs by multiple games in the NL Central, so they both need to go on a run in the second half of the season to catch Chicago.
Cardinals Probable Starter
Dakota Hudson, RHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Dakota Hudson has been due for some negative regression for almost three years now. His career ERA in the majors is 3.26, but his xFIP is all the way up at 4.67. He’s mainly a sinker-ball pitcher, but he’s not very effective with it. Sinker-ball pitchers are typically effective when they are producing a ground-ball rate over 55%, but Hudson is at only 51% so far this season.
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Along with the slightly-below-average ground-ball rate, his sinker has been getting tagged so far this season to the tune of a .456 wOBA. It wasn’t very effective last season either, as hitters accumulated a .289 average and .359 wOBA off it in 2019. Hudson also throws a curveball and slider, but neither are really that effective (both allowed wOBAs over .275 last season).
The Reds have done most of their damage against sinkers this season, so Hudson will have a tough time trying to navigate Cincinnati’s lineup.
Reds Projected Lineup
The Reds have been average offensively so far, ranking 19th in MLB in terms of wOBA (.320) and wRC+ (97), but they’ve been heating up as of late. In their last eight games they’ve hit 13 home runs (leads MLB) and accumulated a .337 wOBA. Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos have carried the Reds offense, combining for 20 home runs and 40 RBIs. Winker and Castellanos and are the only two players in the Reds lineup with a wOBA over .350.
Cincinnati has primarily been feasting on fastballs and sinkers this season, so it has a good matchup against Hudson on Monday.
St. Louis’ bullpens has been pretty fortunate to this point in the season. Collectively it has a 3.93 ERA, but its xFIP is all the way up at 4.72, which means it’s due for some negative regression.
Projections and Pick
Even though I have value on the over in this game, I can’t trust the Cardinals offense at the moment. Instead I am going to take a look at the Reds team total.
With Hudson and the Cardinals bullpen due for some negative regression and the Reds offense starting to heat up, I think this is a good opportunity to take the Reds over 4.5 runs at +102.
The PICK: Reds Team Total Over 4.5 (+102) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]