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White Sox vs. Cubs Odds & Pick: Back the Dog On Saturday

White Sox vs. Cubs Odds & Pick: Back the Dog On Saturday article feature image

Photo credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Reynaldo López

  • Who has the edge in this crosstown rivalry? Our betting analyst Michael Arinze previews Saturday's White Sox vs. Cubs matchup.
  • Find out why he thinks the White Sox are being undervalued and why you should back the underdog.

Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Odds

White Sox Odds +165 [Bet Now]
Cubs Odds -195 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 10.5 (-113/-108) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 8:15 p.m. ET

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The Chicago White Sox look poised to continue their climb in the AL Central Division standings. They extended their winning streak to six games after dismantling the Cubs 10-1 in the opening game of the Crosstown Classic at Wrigley Field last night.

The Pale Hose got a strong performance from Dallas Keuchel, who went eight innings and allowed one run on six hits. While they’re unlikely to get that same kind of length from today’s starter, Reynaldo Lopez, their bullpen is well-rested to shoulder a heavier workload.

Lopez is making just his second start this season after he was forced to exit in the first inning with what was later diagnosed as shoulder inflammation his last time out. It will be interesting to see how long it takes him to get back up to game speed. As a result, backing him in this spot will not be an easy ask.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs will look to Kyle Hendricks to try to even the series. They’ll hope he can provide some innings relief after their bullpen was called into action in the fourth inning of yesterday’s ballgame. That likely won’t be an issue for Hendricks, as he’s had a quality start of six innings or more in four of his five starts this season.

Hendricks is 3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His 2.71 FIP, which is lower than his ERA, suggests that he’s probably been a bit unlucky with some of the runs he’s given up thus far. Batters are hitting just .218 off him, as they’re having a difficult time barreling up (3.0%) against the right-hander.

Chicago White Sox

It’s tough to gauge what we can expect from Lopez in his second start. He retired only two batters last start, and by the time he departed he’d already given up a grand slam home run. As a result, there’s really nothing to glean from that start, which resulted in an ERA of 54.00 and a 31.67 FIP.

If we look at his numbers last season, we find that he went 10-15 with a 5.38 ERA and 5.04 FIP. His most favorable projection at FanGraphs for 2020 lists him at 1-2 on the year with a 5.01 ERA and 4.93 FIP.

Lopez has faced the Cubs just once, but in that start he went seven innings while scattering five hits on one-run ball. The White Sox coaching staff knows their player better than any punter who’s watching with a bird’s-eye view: If he’s getting the ball tonight, then all we can assume he’s healthy enough to pitch.

Betting Analysis

It might surprise you, but its the White Sox who have been the dominant team in the Crosstown Classic despite the much ballyhooed Cubs. The Sox are actually 63-60 all-time against the Cubs.

This young Sox team doesn’t fear their crosstown rivals and will look to show Chicagoans that the South Side of Chicago is the strong side.

White Sox fans would be pleased to know that in 32 at-bats, Cubs batters have yet to drive in a run against Lopez and have mustered just four hits (.125 average) off the big right-hander. In contrast, the White Sox have 19 hits in 67 at-bats (.284 average) against Hendricks with eight RBIs. They’ve also been able to pick up five walks against him and come into today’s game with a .342 OBP.

This is a sneaky game for the White Sox, who may have more advantages on their side despite being a massive dog. For one, they’re 10th in the league with a 3.77 bullpen ERA while the Cubs are 23rd with a 5.36 ERA.

This is just too much value to pass up on a hot team with the better bullpen that is also more rested. DraftKings is dangling the White Sox at +165, and I’m taking the bait.

Give me the Pale Hose to keep the Cubs in hibernation for one more day.

The Pick: White Sox +175 or better (Play down to +140)

[Bet now at DraftKings (now live in Illinois) and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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