Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds (Tuesday, August 11): Windy Weather at Fenway Moving Over/Under

Credit:

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images.

  • Warm temperatures and double-digit sustained winds have inspired the betting market to drive up the Rays vs. Red Sox over/under.
  • Read on for full details on Boston's weather forecast, including updated odds and betting analysis from Danny Donahue.

Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds

Rays Odds -110 [BET NOW]
Red Sox Odds -110 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 10.5 (u-115) [BET NOW]
First Pitch 7:30 p.m. ET

Odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


It’s anyone’s guess as to who’s winning tonight’s AL East meeting between the Rays and Red Sox. At PointsBet, both teams are given -110 odds, though a few shops are favoring Tampa by a few cents.

Perhaps more interesting than the even moneyline, though, is the total — now 10.5 at PointsBet — being the second highest on tonight’s slate, and trailing only a game being played a mile above sea level.

What makes that particularly noteworthy is that the number opened down at 9.5. So what happened?

Rays vs. Red Sox Weather Forecast

Fenway Park | Boston, Mass.

Forecasts in Boston are calling for steady, double-digit winds throughout the night tonight, and at Fenway, those winds will be blowing almost directly out to centerfield (slightly to left-center).

As a result, fly balls are more likely to be home runs, or at the very least wall-ball doubles — which is especially applicable to Fenway Park given its Green Monster in left field.

In fact, Fenway is the fourth-most affected ballpark by outward-blowing wind in our database. Since 2005, the over is 68-53-4 at Fenway in games with winds of at least 8 mph blowing out.

Add in some warm weather (greater than 75 degrees) and that win percentage bumps up a bit more from 56.2% to 58.6% (34-24-2).

That’s a bit of a small sample, but even expanding out to all Major League Baseball stadiums still returns a nice profit in these conditions, with overs going 354-271-38 (56.6%) for 62.2 units and a 9.4% return on investment.

It’s also worth noting that those figures are all based on closing totals, which gives you an idea of why oddsmakers felt a need to make an adjustment to tonight’s game.

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