Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds (Tuesday, August 11): Windy Weather at Fenway Moving Over/Under
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images.
- Warm temperatures and double-digit sustained winds have inspired the betting market to drive up the Rays vs. Red Sox over/under.
- Read on for full details on Boston's weather forecast, including updated odds and betting analysis from Danny Donahue.
Rays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds
|Rays Odds||-110 [BET NOW]|
|Red Sox Odds||-110 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||10.5 (u-115) [BET NOW]|
|First Pitch||7:30 p.m. ET|
It’s anyone’s guess as to who’s winning tonight’s AL East meeting between the Rays and Red Sox. At PointsBet, both teams are given -110 odds, though a few shops are favoring Tampa by a few cents.
Perhaps more interesting than the even moneyline, though, is the total — now 10.5 at PointsBet — being the second highest on tonight’s slate, and trailing only a game being played a mile above sea level.
What makes that particularly noteworthy is that the number opened down at 9.5. So what happened?
Rays vs. Red Sox Weather Forecast
Fenway Park | Boston, Mass.
Forecasts in Boston are calling for steady, double-digit winds throughout the night tonight, and at Fenway, those winds will be blowing almost directly out to centerfield (slightly to left-center).
As a result, fly balls are more likely to be home runs, or at the very least wall-ball doubles — which is especially applicable to Fenway Park given its Green Monster in left field.
In fact, Fenway is the fourth-most affected ballpark by outward-blowing wind in our database. Since 2005, the over is 68-53-4 at Fenway in games with winds of at least 8 mph blowing out.
Add in some warm weather (greater than 75 degrees) and that win percentage bumps up a bit more from 56.2% to 58.6% (34-24-2).
That’s a bit of a small sample, but even expanding out to all Major League Baseball stadiums still returns a nice profit in these conditions, with overs going 354-271-38 (56.6%) for 62.2 units and a 9.4% return on investment.
It’s also worth noting that those figures are all based on closing totals, which gives you an idea of why oddsmakers felt a need to make an adjustment to tonight’s game.