MLB Expert Predictions for Tuesday: Fade the Public in Rangers-Angels?
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andrew Heaney
- Our experts give out their favorite bets for Tuesday night's MLB slate, including Reds at Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET) and Rangers at Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
Danny Donahue: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Mike Minor (11-7, 3.17 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.31 ERA)
- Rangers Moneyline: +135
- Angels Moneyline: -145
- Over/Under: 8
- First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
The Rangers are ahead of the Angels in the standings, they’ve got an All-Star starter on the mound (with an ERA more than a full run better than his counterpart) and they’re listed at pretty significant plus money. Slam dunk, right?
Public bettors sure think so, as 62% of bets are on Texas. And while I personally can’t explain this line to you, I do know that oddsmakers aren’t stupid. When a line doesn’t make a lot of sense, there’s always a reason behind it. And on the rare occasion that the public hammers an underdog, there’s a good chance that the favorite has value.
To be specific to this game, reverse line movement on favorites has been a consistently profitable trend to follow. Teams getting less than 40% of bets that are listed at higher than -130 and have seen at least 10 cents of line movement in their favor have gone 161-76 since 2005, winning 34.6 units for a 14.6% ROI.
I’m trusting the oddsmakers to be right again tonight.
The PICK: Angels -145
John Ewing: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
Luis Castillo (12-5, 3.04 ERA) vs. Caleb Smith (8-7, 3.82 ERA)
- Reds Moneyline: -150
- Marlins Moneyline: +138
- Over/Under: 7
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Reds and Marlins have two of the worst offenses in baseball. Cincinnati has averaged 4.51 runs per game (22nd) this season, and Miami (3.72) is one of two teams to average less than four runs per game.
Oddsmakers don’t expect a lot of scoring. The total for Reds-Marlins is 7 runs.
It makes sense that this matchup features a low total, but it has been profitable to bet the over in this situation this season. In 2019, the over is 139-114-10 (55%) in games with totals of less than eight runs.
In games with totals of 7 or fewer runs, the over has gone 52-38-10 (58%).
This season, there have been 1.4 home runs hit per game, the highest mark in MLB history. With baseballs leaving the yard at an unprecedented level, it is easy for a game to go over a low total, even when two bad offenses are playing.
The PICK: Over 7