Another Dinger Tuesday has arrived, and I've got some bangers!
Let's dive into my 4 home run picks today, including picks for Reds vs Phillies at 6:40 PM on MLB.TV at Citizens Bank Park and White Sox vs Mariners at 9:40 PM at T-Mobile Park.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Phillies Home Run Pick
The matchup overall is tough, but these odds and the weather more than make up for it.
Chase Burns is a below-average matchup for righty power, but he's due for some pretty heavy regression and grades out as a 30% decrease to righty HRs.
This ballpark is average for righty power, but with wind blowing out to right field and temps in the mid-90s, the ball should be flying.
I have the true odds here around +850, making this a great bet.
Pick: Alec Bohm Home Run (+1040, FanDuel)
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Blue Jays vs Yankees Home Run Pick Today
Varsho hasn't shown nearly the power he had last season, but it's still there, and this is a great spot.
The matchup against Will Warren is a plus for lefty power, and Warren has been crushed this season by lefties (1.90 HR/9).
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and with temps in the mid-90s and wind blowing out at 11 MPH, the ball should be flying.
I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Daulton Varsho Home Run (+410, FanDuel)
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Athletics vs Angels Home Run Pick Today
Trout has struggled lately, but he's due for some positive regression, as the underlying numbers have been great this season, with a career-high barrel rate.
Jacob Lopez has been a gas can for righty power in his career, allowing a 1.85 HR/9.
I have the true odds here around +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run (+360, FanDuel)
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White Sox vs Mariners Home Run Pick Today
J-Rod has been on a tear recently, and these odds are far too high.
We don't have a large sample size on Anthony Kay in the majors, but he's struggled mightily and has allowed 1.32 HR/9.
His pitch mix suggests he should have splits that are well above average, and he grades out as a pitcher who should have nearly a 1.50 HR/9 against righties.
J-Rod has 6 bombs this month and has a tendency to stay hot when he gets hot.
I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+470, FanDuel)
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