MLB Home Run Props Friday | Picks, Odds for Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez & More (Friday, September 15)
Pictured: Yordan Alvarez. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +10125 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+520)
Rangers vs Guardians, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito (RHP)
If he had remained healthy this season, I think there’s a realistic chance Corey Seager could’ve upset Shohei Ohtani for the AL MVP award. What he’s done this season has been historic. Literally.
The numbers are eye-popping. He ranks inside the top 3% of all hitters in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and barrel rate. In just 103 games, he has 31 home runs and has climbed the leaderboards to second in MLB with a .344 average.
Over the last three months, Seager hasn’t finished with an OPS under 1.100. He hit 10 home runs in August and is on pace to beat that in September (6). As the Rangers enter a tight playoff race, Seager has been a steady hand guiding them through it all.
On Friday night, Seager has a great matchup against Lucas Giolito. I’ve written about the concerns with the right-hander before. His barrel rate ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers and he puts the ball in the air frequently.
Through 29 games, Giolito has a 1.98 HR/9. He’s been on three teams this year and the home run issues haven’t gone away no matter the park or city. Since joining the Guardians, he has made two starts. In those 10 innings, he’s given up six home runs.
Seager is +310 at FanDuel to hit a HR.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (+340)
Astros vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Zack Greinke (RHP)
I’m not sure how the price on Yordan Alvarez is in the mid-300s today. This is a great matchup against the soft-tossing Zack Greinke in the middle of an upswing for Alvarez regarding both fly balls and hard-hit rate.
If he stays healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that Alvarez takes home an MVP award in his career. The slugger ranks inside the top 6% of all hitters in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He even boasts an impressive 14.2 BB%.
To put it simply, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball.
Since the All-Star break, Alvarez has been automatic at the plate. In 154 at-bats, the lefty has 10 home runs and a 1.017 OPS. He’s hitting .325 and has more walks (29) than strikeouts (26).
Alvarez lines up opposite Greinke, a 39-year-old on his last legs. His effectiveness has drastically dropped and the righty ranks in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in xBA and strikeout rate.
Why I like this prop even more is the fact that, despite his struggles attacking hitters, Greinke has elite command. His walk rate sits in the 99th percentile. While Greinke ranks around league average in barrel%, he is in the midst of his worst season from a HR/9 standpoint (1.78) in his career.
It makes sense, considering the vet is nearly 20 seasons in and his velocity and effectiveness is declining. We’ve seen that with Adam Wainwright, too. Hence my shock to see Alvarez this high in the home run market.
Over the last eight games, Alvarez has hit four home runs. I expect his hot streak at the plate to continue as Houston looks to remain atop the AL West standings.
Alvarez is +330 at FanDuel.
LaMonte Wade Jr., San Francisco Giants (+575)
Giants vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Chase Anderson (RHP)
My group chat and I have an irrational love for LaMonte Wade Jr. It extends back to the first time I inserted him into my Triple 7s and in his first at-bat against Dean Kremer, he crushed a ball into McCovey Cove and cashed a +825 ticket.
It’s not the first and certainly not the last time that I will be backing Late Night LaMonte, and Friday night presents itself as another great opportunity. Wade heads to a hitter-friendly Coors Field in a plus matchup with Chase Anderson.
At his core, Anderson is a below-average pitcher. His xERA sits at 5.46 and he ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in most metrics. He doesn’t strike out many batters, has a .269 xBA and a 9.5 barrel%, his highest since 2020.
While Wade isn’t a power hitter, he’s one of the best Giants against right-handed pitching (125 wRC+) and nearly 30% of all hits go for extra bases. His 9.6 barrel% sits above average and he has one of the best eyes in baseball — top 5% of all hitters in chase and strikeout rate.
That great eye paired with Anderson’s tendency to give up a lot of fly ball pairs well for Wade to find success. He himself has been hitting the ball in the air at a higher rate of late and a hitter-friendly Coors park is just another benefit toward the ball flying on Friday night.
Since September rolled around, Wade has been crushing the ball. He’s been hitting .400 with a .941 OPS in 30 at-bats.
Wade is +575 at Bet365 to hit a HR.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, September 15
- Corey Seager (+310)
- Yordan Alvarez (+340)
- LaMonte Wade Jr (+575)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,012.54.