For Monday, July 7, I'm on three MLB home run props: Trevor Story, Bobby Witt Jr. and Wyatt Langford.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets for Monday.
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, July 7
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 7
Trevor Story (+420)
vs. Rockies (SP: LHP Austin Gomber)
Trevor Story has been having a good season, with 14 homers through 87 games, and this is a good spot. Opposing pitcher Austin Gomber has given up a high 2.25 HR/9 to righties this season and a career 1.49 HR/9.
The weather in Boston should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 10 mph. The underlying numbers for Story have been better than they've been in years, and I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)
vs. Pirates (SP: LHP Andrew Heaney)
Opposing pitcher Andrew Heaney has been less of a gas can this season for righty power, but has still given up an above-average amount of power to righties this season (1.21 HR/9), and the underlying numbers have been similar to his career numbers, where he's allowed a 1.70 HR/9.
The weather in Kansas City should good for hitting, with high humidity and temperatures in the mid-80s. Witt hasn't hit a ton of homers this season, and part of that has to do with Kansas City's home ballpark, but the underlying numbers have been great, and he's due for some positive regression. I have the true odds here under +400, making this a good bet.
Wyatt Langford (+475)
at Angels (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
Wyatt Langford hasn't been hitting a ton of homers over the past month, but the underlying numbers are still good — a 12.7% barrel rate, 40% fly-ball rate and a 35% hard-contact rate.
The matchup is great vs. Yusei Kikuchi, who is having a good season, but has allowed above-average homers and is likely due for some regression. He has allowed a 41.3% fly-ball rate and a 38.6% hard-contact rate, which are actually worse than his career averages, where he's allowed a 1.60 HR/9.
This ballpark is also an upgrade for Langford, and the weather should be neutral to above average for hitting. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a good bet.
