For Tuesday, May 13, I'm on four MLB home run props that have value at the time of writing ā Kyle Manzardo (against the Brewers), Royce Lewis (against the Orioles), Elly De La Cruz (against the White S0x) and Ben Rice (against the Mariners).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and writeups on each player ā plus a HR parlay ā for Tuesday night.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds ā Tuesday, May 13
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:10 p.m. | |
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 13
Kyle Manzardo (+450)
vs. Brewers (SP: RHP Quinn Priester)
Kyle Manzardo has been great to start the season with nine home runs in 36 games.
His underlying numbers have been great as well, with a 14.8% barrel and 51% fly-ball rate. On Tuesday, he gets a matchup against Brewers right-hander Quinn Priester, who has been hit hard in his career by lefties (2.32 HR/9).
While Priester is likely due for some positive regression in that area with his low fly-ball rate, Manzardo's high fly-ball rate should help him get the ball in the air.
The weather in Cleveland shouldn't be bad, and these odds on Manzardo are just a bit too high.
I have the true odds around +400.
Royce Lewis (+725)
at Orioles (SP: LHP Cade Povich)
There is a real chance this TwinsāOrioles game gets postponed or is weather shortened, but these odds are more than high enough for me to risk it.
Orioles left-hander Cade Povich has been an above-average matchup for right-handed hitters in his career ā 1.81 HR/9 to go along with a 42% fly-ball rate.
Royce Lewis hasn't been great in the small sample size he's had this season, but we know the power is there, and he's a near-elite power bat when healthy.
Getting over +700 in a plus matchup is a no-brainer.
Elly De La Cruz (+475)
vs. White Sox (SP: RHP Jonathan Cannon)
The weather for this White SoxāReds game looks a little dicey at the moment, but RotoGrinders' chief meteorologist, Kevin Roth, seems to think this game will get played.
If it does, the weather should be good for hitting, and Great American Ball Park is one of the best in the league for home runs.
Elly De La Cruz gets a matchup against right-hander Jonathan Cannon, who has been an above-average matchup for lefty power in his career, giving up 1.47 HR/9 to go along with low K numbers and a high fly-ball rate.
De La Cruz has been off to a slow start this season, but the underlying numbers have been good, and going up against a low-strikeout pitcher is a huge plus.
I have the true odds here around +400.
Ben Rice (+450)
at Mariners (SP: RHP Bryan Woo)
Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo is an above-average pitcher, but he has really struggled with left-handed power hitters.
Woo has allowed 1.47 HR/9 in his career to lefties to go along with massive fly-ball numbers (around 50%).
T-Mobile Park is a bit of a downgrade for Ben Rice, but he has shown a ton of power this season with a 19.4% barrel rate.
I have the true odds around +375.
