MLB NRFI Betting Pick for Monday: Marlins vs. Angels Presents Value at Plus Money (April 11)
Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Lorenzen
- Our NRFI expert has looked through today's 15 games and found his favorite bet from the slate.
- He's targeting Marlins-Angels, which features Elieser Hernandez on the mound against Michael Lorenzen.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown and NRFI betting pick from this game.
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
Marlins vs. Angels No Runs First Inning (+100)
|Matchup||Marlins vs. Angels|
|First Pitch||9:38 p.m. ET|
The NRFI is off to a hot start in 2022. As we are a few days from Opening Day we are now deep into teams rotations and seeing fourth and fifth starters. We look to dig deep and carefully ride this streak, taking the NRFI between the Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins.
Elieser Hernandez has been a silent NRFI machine since the 2018 season, holding a solid 25-7 NRFI record. In that same time span, he holds a 14-5 NRFI record when on the road. In 2021, Hernandez had a 1.64 first-inning ERA with a 9-2 NRFI record.
A key split that plays a major role in selecting a NRFI pitcher is how they perform the first time through the lineup. Hernandez excels at this. In his last 144 batters first time through, they combined for just a .222 batting average.
The batter-pitcher matchups are in Hernandez’s favor even though he has not faced the Angels yet in his career. Unfamiliarity generally sides with the pitcher. Likewise, the top of the Angels’ lineup has started the season cold.
- Shohei Ohtani is batting .077.
- Mike Trout is batting .200.
- Anthony Rendon is batting .111.
- Jo Adell remains hitless to start the season.
Michael Lorenzen is a unique NRFI pitcher, working as a starter, bullpen arm, and an occasional outfielder. He posted a perfect 5-0 record to the NRFI, including a 1-0 NRFI record vs. the Marlins. He’s surrendered just five hits and not allowed a run in his last 18 batters faced.
Lorenzen is unique in another way as well. He possesses an odd split per batting order. Hitters who are batting first, second or third are hitting just .145 but hitters batting 7, 8 and 9 are slashing him for a combined .684 batting average.
The batter-pitcher matchups are significantly in Lorenzen’s favor. The top four potential hitters he may face are:
- Jesus Aguilar, who is 0-8.
- Avisail Garcia, who is 1-5.
- Jorge Soler, who is 1-3.
- Jesus Sanchez, who is 0-1.
The Marlins last season were the 27th-ranked team in scoring runs in the first- inning on the road. This trend has carried over into this season as they have not scored a first-inning run yet. In contrast, their rotation was sneakily one of the best NRFI rotations, ranking 10th in the league in opponent’s first-inning runs per game.
Look to ride the slumping Marlins while pairing them with their silent NRFI machine Hernandez. Take the NRFI in the Marlins/Angels game at (+100).
Get all of Shayne Trail’s NRFI/YRFI bets instantly in The Action Network app.