MLB NRFI Picks: Tonight’s Model Predictions
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Irvin.
Another 2-2 day on Sunday for a mostly flat weekend.
We've been close to some big days lately, but the season record is now 57-44 for just over 11 units of profit.
We're back with four more picks on Monday, including a half-unit play on a specific team with some alternate options.
MLB NRFI Picks: Tonight's Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt vs. Grayson Rodriguez
These are two of the better YRFI teams in baseball, with strong hitters at the top of both lineups. The game features a nine-run total that's creeping up, so this could be an even better value if it jumps to 9.5 at some point.
In addition, Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is somewhat of a slow starter, with a 4.33 xFIP his first time through the order dating back to last season (which was his rookie year), which is a nice sprinkle on top of this play.
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Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin
This game is a case of lousy hitting meets bad pitching, with the struggling Marlins taking on Jake Irvin and his 4.55 ERA (4.96 xERA).
While the Marlins aren't a promising lineup overall, the top of their lineup is reasonably solid, so the first few hitters should produce the bulk of their 4.3 implied runs.
Other options for this bet include the Marlins' two-way first-inning moneyline (in which ties are refunded) at -135 (also DraftKings) for the risk-averse or the three-way first-inning moneyline at +270 on FanDuel if you're looking for an even juicier line.
As always, I recommend playing the big plus-money options at half of your usual unit.
Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Luis Severino
Both starters in this game have made considerable improvements in 2024, with ERAs well below 3.00 and underlying numbers that back them up. That has carried over to their early game splits, where both have sub-2.00 ERAs their first time through the order.
This game also has a 7.5-run implied total and two reasonably balanced teams offensively, which means scoring isn't especially likely to come from the top of their lineups, making this game a solid NRFI play.
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Bryce Miller
I don't love the juice on this one, but it's hard to ignore the 7.5-run total and solid starting pitching on both sides of this game.
There's a bit of risk on the Braves side — as is always the case with their lineup — but there's also a reasonable chance one of their stars gets the day off after playing extra innings in Atlanta yesterday rather than flying to Seattle. If that happens, the NRFI price will surely get worse, so I'll roll the dice early.
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