MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday Model Predictions (5/29)

MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Wednesday Model Predictions (5/29) article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston’s Justin Verlander.

While the string of sweeps came to an end, the 3-1 day on Tuesday still resulted in a solid profit. On the season, we're now 115-76 for 35 units of profit.

I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Wednesday, May 29.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets for Wednesday

Royals vs. Twins

Wednesday, May 29
7:40 p.m. ET
YRFI +120 (Play to +100)

Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Bailey Ober

Our only loss yesterday was a NRFI in this series that the Twins ruined with a two-run first inning. Let's hope they can do it again today, with a big plus-money line being offered.

While both starting pitchers have been solid this season, Seth Lugo's 1.74 overall ERA is more than two runs lower than his xERA and xFIP. On top of that, his 4.32 xFIP his first time through the order is higher than his overall number.

It's a similar story with Ober, whose ERA the first time through the order is on the wrong side of 5.00.

Both lineups are also fairly top-heavy, with two borderline-elite hitters among the top four for both teams. I have this one at a bit better than 50% for the YRFI, so anything at even- or plus-money is playable.

Astros vs. Mariners

Wednesday, May 29
9:40 p.m. ET
NRFI -135 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. George Kirby

The 41-year-old Verlander clearly isn't the pitcher he used to be, but he's still solid with an ERA and xERA in the upper-three range. Crucially, for our purposes, he's been much better early in games (2.35 ERA) before falling apart late.

George Kirby has a 4.33 overall ERA, but his underlying metrics are all about a run lower. Like Verlander, both his ERA and xFIP are lower early in games.

While I don't love laying this kind of juice on a NRFI involving the Astros, the game total is just seven tonight. I wouldn't take this bet anywhere other than Caesars, as other books are all at least 10 cents worse on the price.

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