We finally stopped the bleeding yesterday, going 2-1 —with the loss on a half-unit play— for a profit of 1.5 units.
Hopefully, we can carry some momentum into the weekend, with three picks on Friday.
Here are my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Friday, June 20.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — June 20, 2025
Tigers vs. Rays NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Shane Baz
It's safe to describe the first half of 2025 as disappointing for both Shane Baz and Jack Flaherty.
Both finished the 2024 campaigns with ERAs in the low threes, but come into Friday's contest with their overall ERA marks a full run higher.
However, they've been much better early in games. Flaherty's first-time-through-the-order ERA is just 2.16, while Baz is even better at 1.65.
With both offenses being good but not great at the top, that's enough to play the NRFI at a relatively low price — especially with Detroit coming off a Thursday doubleheader in which the night game was delayed and went to extra innings.
We likely have some tired Tigers after they made the trip to Tampa late last night, and I could see some of the better bats get the evening off.
Reds vs. Cardinals YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Brady Singer vs. Andre Pallante
With temperatures creeping up across the country, we have plenty of games with solid hitting weather.
The best of the bunch is this one in St. Louis, where Weather Edge is showing a 26% boost to scoring and a 31% boost to home runs.
With evening games, those impacts will be concentrated early since the temperature cools throughout the contest.
Plus, we've got two starters with overall ERAs in the mid-fours and not exceptionally strong in their first-time-through-the-order splits.
These offenses rank 11th and 12th, respectively, in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with some solid bats at the top, which is enough for the YRFI in a game with a nine-run (and rising) total.
Guardians vs. Athletics YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Jeffrey Springs
The A's temporary home in Sacramento is a minor league stadium that, so far this season, has boosted overall scoring slightly more than Coors Field in Colorado.
The market has been slow to react to that, but it's beginning to catch up with this game, which features a 9.5-run total.
While Cleveland is on the wrong side of its platoon splits against the left-handed Jeffrey Springs based on 2025 data, the top of its order is stacked with bats who historically do their best work against southpaws.
Springs also has a 6.20 ERA and 5.57 xFIP his first time through the order, making him one of the more beatable pitchers early.
I also like the full-game YRFI here and I'll be splitting my exposure between the two options, but the larger edge is on the Guardians team line.
