The Tampa Bay Rays host the Detroit Tigers on June 20, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The Tigers, fresh off a strong doubleheader versus the Pirates, will head to Tampa Bay to face the scalding hot Rays. The Tigers enter as -115 favorites with an 8.5-run total.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Tigers vs Rays Prediction
- Tigers vs Rays picks: Over 8.5 (Play to 9.5)
My Tigers vs Rays best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Rays Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +144 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -112 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
Tigers vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| Jack Flaherty (RHP) | Stat | Shane Baz (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.03 / 3.86 | ERA /xERA | 4.54 / 3.99 |
| 4.28 / 3.54 | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 / 4.05 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 20% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 34.9% | GB% | 51.1% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Sean Paul’s Tigers vs Rays Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Baz Dazzles Only on Road
It’s been a strong five-start run for Rays right-hander Shane Baz, who limited the Mets to 6 2/3 scoreless innings.
The important and concerning note is that Baz shut the Mets down on the road. The transition to Steinbrenner Field for the Rays' home games isn’t one that’s favored Baz, as his ERA sits at 5.36 at home.
Baz is also approaching his career-high in MLB innings, sitting just two innings from his top innings mark. We’ll see if that plays a role in his overall stuff deteriorating or if the Rays opt to limit his workload.
I’m still not entirely sure what to make of Baz. He sports a shaky 3.46 BB/9 and a 1.51 HR/9, which is up from 1.02 last season. He also still lacks a true strikeout pitch, as his K/9 hovers around 8.03. That's not awful, but not quite what prognosticators thought of Baz during his time as an elite prospect.
When you dive into his batted-ball data, his 27th percentile barrel rate and 43rd percentile hard-hit rate put the skyrocketing home run number into context. Baz still has a ton of upside — if his elite 107 Stuff+ is any indication. However, the high walk and home run totals are a significant concern.
The main reason the Rays are just 2.5 back from first place in the AL East is their lineup. Since June began, Tampa Bay has the highest wRC+ in MLB at 123.
I like how the Rays' lineup matches up here. For one, they’re facing a right-hander in Jack Flaherty, and the Rays' offense is better suited against a righty.
Additionally, they boasted a strong 9% walk rate in June, accompanied by a 22.2% strikeout rate. That ratio will play well in this matchup.
Hearing that the Rays are due to face a right-handed pitcher is music to the ears of lefty sluggers Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe. Lowe is hitting .153 against lefties in 53 plate appearances, while Aranda has zero homers and a slugging percentage below .350.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Flaherty's Wild Ride
How will Jack Flaherty respond after allowing seven earned runs with three homers and five walks over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Reds? It's been a real mixed bag for the Tigers second-most-established arm behind Tarik Skubal.
Before imploding against the Reds, Flaherty allowed six earned runs over five starts, while pitching six-plus innings in four of the five.
Before that sterling stretch, Flaherty allowed four-plus runs in three straight outings.
This matchup is a total disaster for Flaherty. Similar to Baz, Flaherty struggles with walks and homers, posting a 3.32 BB/9 and 1.66 HR/9. It won't be easy to keep some of those hard-hit drives in the ballpark.
He'll need to use his elite 10.66 K/9 to limit one of the sport's scariest lineups.
The Tigers' patient plate approach paid dividends in Thursday's game, as they walked five times against NL CY Young leader Paul Skenes. Their lineup features a few free swingers (namely Javier Baez), leading to a 7.5 walk rate in June.
However, if they can practice patience versus Skenes, the same should apply to the erratic Baz.
I talked about Tampa Bay's bats dominating in June. Detroit isn't far behind, ranking third in the MLB with a 118 wRC+ this month. The Tigers have a strong supply of pop in their bats, ranking seventh with 22 homers and third with a .197 isolated power.
I'd say the ISO number is a better representation of the Tigers' true power. That's a result of the pitcher-friendly environment that is Comerica Park, playing against the Tigers' offensive strengths.
Some balls that would be high-flying beyond the low-lying walls of Steinbrenner Field are deep flyouts or doubles.
Tigers vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'd be surprised if the total doesn't finish in double-digits. We're going against the trends here, as the over is just 16-27-1 at home for Tampa Bay.
I get why the total is sitting at 8.5 given that stat. But two pitchers who are often stung by the home-run ball against two of the best offenses in baseball is a recipe for an offensive barrage.
Go against the past results and take the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to 9.5)
