After having last week off, I'm back for a few days of NRFI/YRFI picks before the All-Star break.
I have one official pick — with some suggested parlay add-ons — for Monday's somewhat smaller slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — 7/7
Dodgers vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Freddy Peralta
This is a somewhat tricky spot to project, since we have the Dodgers' stacked lineup — the best in baseball against right-handed pitching — but also two extremely solid starting pitchers in this matchup.
That probably explains the wide range of prices on this one, with the NRFI price ranging from -122 at BetRivers to as high as -145 at Caesars.
I'm siding with the pitchers here, at least for one inning. Both Peralta and Yamamoto have first-time-through-the-order ERAs below 2.00, and the Brewers' lineup isn't especially threatening.
That makes this a one-sided risk at worst, which could even be hedged by a Dodgers YRFI at +220 on DraftKings.
Plus, this game being in Milwaukee is about a 10% downgrade in Park Factor, which further helps the case for defense.
This is my only official pick for the day, but DraftKings is offering a profit boost on NRFI/YRFI parlays.
My favorite option to pair with that is the Pirates/Royals YRFI at -110, which gives boosted parlay odds of +324. If you're looking for a safer option, the Rangers/Angels NRFI is -145, which gets the boosted parlay to around +270.
