After an exciting All-Star break, standard baseball is back with a full Friday slate.
I have one pick for Friday's contests.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI, YRFI picks and model predictions for Friday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — 7/18
Yankees vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Undecided (Max Fried) vs. Spencer Strider
I'm listing Max Fried as the Yankees' starter since it's his turn in the rotation. However, he's officially day-to-day with a blister on his throwing hand and might not end up starting.
Doing my projections based on Fried, I'm still showing a slight value to the YRFI. That's largely driven by Aaron Judge and Ronald Acuna Jr. — the two best hitters in baseball by wRC+ — both getting first inning at-bats.
Of course, a move to somebody other than Fried would be a fairly significant boost to the YRFI. That would mean significant CLV on this side of the bet, with a chance to arbitrage and lock in a profit later.
The third option — and possibly ideal — option is that Fried tries to push through an injury and is at reduced effectiveness.
Either way, I want to be ahead of the news with my bet.
