I lost my sole bet on Monday's smaller slate — though naturally won the suggested parlay pairing — but we have far more games to choose form today.
I have two bets on Tuesday, including one that takes advantage of a promotion.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — 7/8
Rockies vs. Red Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Brayan Bello
Boston is currently a top-three overall team against left-handed pitching, is implied for 5.6 runs and is at Fenway with weather conditions that boost scoring by about 8%, according to Weather Edge.
While I'm showing some slight value on this game to produce a YRFI in general — with the best odds of +100 at FanDuel — the Boston team line is a much stronger value.
While Kyle Freeland's 5.49 ERA is somewhat of a factor in home games at Coors Field, Fenway is the second-best hitters' park in baseball, and his 4.81 xERA suggests he has bigger problems than just his home ballpark.
Plus, his 4.38 first-time-through-the-order xFIP is actually higher than his 4.04 overall mark.
This would be a solid use of the no-sweat token on DraftKings — which awards a free bet if your initial pick loses — or you could get extra crazy and bet on a first-inning home run from Boston at +600 with the token.
Nationals vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Sonny Gray
I have the Cardinals as slightly more likely to score a first-inning run than the Red Sox, despite them being implied for about a full run less.
Unfortunately, sportsbooks do too, with their team YRFI coming at a slightly worse price.
That's because of the splits on Jake Irvin. He has a 5.68 ERA and 4.92 xFIP his first time through the order and is considerably worse against lefties. He'll have to face two at the top of the Cardinals' lineup.
On the other hand, Sonny Gray has been solid early in games (and generally) and is facing a struggling Nationals team that's just fired its coach and GM. With the odds we're getting for the first-inning moneyline, I'll take my chances on him.
The -106 YRFI at FanDuel is also showing as a slight value, but I'd rather take the bigger swing on the Cardinals moneyline.
