We went 1-2 on MLB NRFI and YRFI bets yesterday, though the winner returned plus money, which helped limit the losses.
I have six MLB NRFI picks for Tuesday's slate. Due to the volume, I suggest somewhat lowering your unit.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 20, 2025
Pirates vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Nick Martinez
The Pirates offense has been bad this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and no higher than 27th against pitchers from either side.
The Reds hit righties at about a league-average rate, but are terrible against lefties, with their wRC+ dropping more than 20 points.
That's especially prominent at the top of their lineup, where leadoff hitter TJ Friedl and No. 3 hitter Elly De La Cruz both have extreme platoon splits.
Taking on lefty Bailey Falter tonight lowers the chances of a run being produced from the top of the order.
Falter and Nick Martinez are also fairly solid early in games, but this one is more about the offenses.
Mets vs. Red Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes vs. Walker Buehler
This game features a nine-run total, and three of the top-15 hitters in baseball by wRC+ get guaranteed at-bats in the first inning.
That's enough for me unless the pitchers are elite, which isn't the case here.
Holmes has been solid, and Buehler has turned things around, but neither have overall or first-time through-the-order numbers that would make me want to fade these offenses.
Plus, this game is in Boston, a net 18% park upgrade from Citi Field, so the Mets bats, in particular, should be even more dangerous than we're used to seeing.
Yankees vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Will Warren vs. Patrick Corbin
I had sworn off Patrick Corbin YRFIs when it seemed like he may have gotten superpowers from the spider that bit him, but this matchup is too good to ignore.
The Yankees are the best team in baseball against lefties by a ridiculous margin, with a 147 wRC+ as a team.
They're implied for a bit over five runs tonight at home, one of the better home run parks in baseball, where they're facing a high fly ball/low strikeout pitcher.
On the other side, Will Warren has a 4.61 ERA this season, although he's been broadly unlucky. That should give the Rangers a bit of first-inning equity, though the Yankees are the main driver.
Unfortunately, the Yankees team line is around +160 which isn't enough to be worth taking a shot on.
If you're looking for a fun flier, New York to hit a first-inning home run is +400 at DraftKings. I'm not sure how to precisely price the true value there, but it's an interesting sprinkle.
Padres vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Chris Bassitt
This is another BetRivers special where the biggest selling point for the bet is the fact that they're somewhat off the rest of the market on the side that I like.
Outside of that, both Cease and Bassitt have sub-3.00 first-time through the order xFIP marks, the game has an eight-run total, and the top of the Blue Jays lineup is much better against lefties than they are against righties, putting them on the wrong side of their splits today.
Guardians vs. Twins NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams vs. Chris Paddack
We've got another weather risk in this game, but as it stands now, the forecast around game time is temperatures in the 40s and double-digit winds blowing in from the outfield.
Add to that the fact that hitters might be tired after finishing a suspended game earlier in the day, while both starters are coming in fresh.
Plus, the Twins still don't have Byron Buxton at the top of their lineup, and the game has a seven-run total.
There's a lot to like here, even if Gavin Williams is a slightly scary pitcher to take a chance on.
Tigers vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Tarik Skubal
I'm actually projecting a slight value on the game YRFI here as well, which is as high as +110.
However, with Tarik Skubal on the mound most of the threat is coming from the other side. Detroit is a top-five offense against righties, and Erick Fedde has a 5.29 ERA and 6.43 xFIP his first time through the order.
This game also has great hitting weather, with temperatures in the 70s and the wind blowing out to right field. That's particularly helpful with the Tigers lineup featuring three lefties among the first four spots.
