Neither of our longer-odd shots hit yesterday, though at least one of them returned a bonus bet for today.
On Wednesday, I have some more standard NRFI/YRFIs, with three total across the slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — 7/9
Rays vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell vs. Reese Olson
Originally scheduled for earlier in the afternoon, this game was pushed to 5:10 p.m. local time in an effort to dodge the rain that's in the forecast for much of the afternoon.
I mention that because a delay is one of my bigger concerns here, as it's hard to predict the impact of a late start on the routines of hitters or pitchers.
Outside of that, we have two solid starters taking on two lineups that are relatively balanced, or in the Tigers' case, more dangerous in the middle than at the top. The hope here is that both Olson and Littell can get through the early part of the order without having to face the sluggers in the middle.
Both have first-time-through-the-order xFIP marks right around 3.00, which is good but not great.
Because of that there's not much room to take a worse line than what Caesars is offering at -125, but FanDuel and DraftKings both have -130 lines I'd deem acceptable.
Pirates vs. Royals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Kris Bubic
I was hoping we'd be able to get a decent price on the Royals team YRFI in this one, since the Pirates are the worst team in the MLB against left-handed pitching and are taking on a tough southpaw in Kris Bubic.
However, books have priced that line very aggressively, with the team YRFI sitting at just +165 at DraftKings.
I'm showing value on the game line, largely thanks to the Royals' chances against Bailey Falter. The Pirates lefty has a 4.84 xFIP his first time through the order and is getting a considerable downgrade in park factor from his home ballpark.
While Kansas City isn't great overall against lefties, three of its first four hitters are on the strong side of their platoon splits.
Pittsburgh also has an outside shot of cashing this one, with some solid bats against southpaws at the top of its lineup. Plus, Bubic has slightly worse ERA and xFIP numbers his first time through the order than he does overall.
With 90+ degree temperatures and winds blowing out to left field, it's also a solid weather spot for the bats — specifically right-handed pull hitters, which is crucial with two left-handed pitchers on the bump.
Nationals vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore vs. Andre Pallante
On Tuesday, I took the Cardinals first inning moneyline, effectively a parlay of the Nationals NRFI and the Cardinals YRFI.
Washington held up its end, but St. Louis was unable to produce an early run.
The Cardinals are less likely to do so on Wednesday against MacKenzie Gore, who's having a breakout season, with a 3.11 ERA that drops to 2.95 his first time through the order. The Red Birds also have a wRC+ that's 20 points lower against left-handed pitching.
On the other side, Andre Pallante has a 2.09 ERA his first time through the order, so while he's not as strong of a pitcher overall, he does good work early in games.
