We went 1-2 on Tuesday, though depending on how you structured the single-team YRFI options in the winning game — and whether you used the No Sweat Bonus Bet promotion at DraftKings — it was close to a break-even day.
Wednesday gives us another busy slate, with three more picks.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — June 4, 2025
Rockies vs. Marlins NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Cal Quantrill
This is a frustrating series to project since both teams involved are rolling out fairly bad pitchers in matchups against bad lineups. We tried a NRFI on Monday, but bad hitting beat bad pitching then — let's hope we get that again today.
Freeland has a 4.23 xFIP his first time through the order, while Quantrill is north of 5.00, giving both pitchers reverse splits in terms of when they do their best work.
That means I'm projecting the runs to skew early in this game, which has a total of 8.0 or 8.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Both teams have just one above-average hitter in the top three spots in their lineup, but since they're even worse after that it still means I'm projecting the runs to be produced by the hitters at the top.
I don't love this one, but it's worth a shot at even money.
Guardians vs. Yankees NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis L. Ortiz vs. Clarke Schmidt
The top of the Yankees lineup makes this bet worth considering on a daily basis. Aaron Judge is the best hitter in baseball by a wide margin, but the other two members of the Yankees’ top three — Ben Rice and Trent Grisham — are both top-25 bats by wRC+ on the season.
As is number five hitter Paul Goldschmidt, with the only "weak link" being Cody Bellinger — who's a well above-average hitter even in a down season by his standards.
They're taking on Luis L. Ortiz, who has an ERA of 5.32 and an xFIP of 4.55 his first time through the order. Plus this game is in New York, which already boosts home runs, with weather that provides a further 11% boost to scoring, according to Weather Edge.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Chris Sale
We cashed this one yesterday despite a relatively strong pitching matchup, and are banking on the same thing happening again tonight.
While Kelly and Sale — especially Sale — are both solid pitchers, they each have slightly higher xFIP marks their first time through the order. Kelly's 4.81 ERA his first time around also isn't great, and is a bad sign against a Braves lineup that's much stronger at the top after the return of Ronald Acuna Jr.
Arizona is less likely to score against Sale, but still has five straight hitters with a 120 or higher wRC+ mark.
I wouldn't pay any juice on this bet, but if you can get plus-money it's worth taking.
