The Pittsburgh Pirates (16-33) host the Cincinnati Reds (25-25) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PIT and FanDuel Ohio.
The Reds and Pirates will conclude their early week series with an early afternoon game. The Pirates took the second game so this one will decide the winner of the series. The Reds enter as -126 moneyline favorites with a game total of 8.
Continue reading to find my Reds vs Pirates prediction for Wednesday.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Pick Today
- Reds vs Pirates pick: Under 8; Bet to Under 7.5 (play to -130)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is the game total under 7.5 Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds, Lines
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -115o / -105u | -126 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -115o / -105u | +108 |
Reds vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brady Singer (CIN) | Stat | LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 5.01/4.01 | ERA /xERA | 3.02/4.61 |
| 4.43/4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 4.18/4.36 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 9.1% |
| 36% | GB% | 44.9% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 99 |
Reds vs Pirates Preview, Prediction
Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates' signing of Andrew Heaney is beginning to feel like the best bargain pitching contract of the winter. The veteran lefty enters this outing with a dazzling 3.02 ERA in 50 2/3 innings over nine starts.
It does feel like Heaney is on track for some regression. Heaney has a 4.61 xERA and a 4.18 FIP, which is more than fine for what the Pirates expected from him.
The odd thing about Heaney is he’s striking out 6.75 batters per nine (his lowest with 2015) and he has an elevated 3.38 BB/9 (third highest of his career).
The regression won’t be anything crazy, though. Since we’re still just nine starts into Heaney’s 2025 campaign, it’ll just take a few three or four-run outings to put his ERA in line with his expected numbers.
There’s no sugarcoating the Pirates' offensive hardships. They have a 58 wRC+ since May 10th, which ranks last in MLB. The two exciting pieces in Pittsburgh’s lineup are O’Neil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.
Cruz is struggling mightily of late, hitting .143 with a .184 slugging percentage in his past 15 games. Meanwhile, Reynolds has a 65 wRC+ this year.
Reds Betting Preview
What happened to Brady Singer?
I expected an increase in homers due to moving from a pitchers’ haven at Kaufmann Stadium to a hitters’ park at Great American Ballpark.
What I didn’t foresee was Singer posting a career-worst ground-ball rate, jumping from 47% last year to just 36% this year. He ranked in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate last year and is 20th percentile this year. He’s always gotten hit hard, but the hard hits are now coming in the air.
That adds some extra context to Singer’s elevated 5.01 ERA. While Singer’s 4.01 xERA and 4.43 FIP indicate he’s pitched better than his ERA, it’s still hard to buy stock in him, but it’s easy to buy stock in any pitchers facing this embarrassing Pirates lineup.
The Reds' bats have gotten hot of late. They have a 118 wRC+ in their past 13 games, which puts them seventh in MLB.
I'm not buying into the Reds' offense suddenly being good, as their .328 BABIP since May 10th is pretty unsustainable. It's only a matter of time until the BABIP luck fades in the opposite direction and the Reds propensity for swinging and missing becomes a bigger issue.
Plus, Cincinnati hasn't done well against left-handed pitching all year. The latest example of the Reds' struggles against left-handed pitching is Bailey Falter dominating them on Tuesday.
Entering Monday's game, the Reds ranked 21st in MLB with a 78 wRC+ versus left-handers. I'm not overly surprised that the Reds really struggle against lefties, as Gavin Lux, TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz are three of their best hitters and all three are much better facing right-handers.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Hopefully yesterday's lack of offense doesn't lead to a barrage of runs on Wednesday. I don't think it will, as Heaney and Singer are both veteran hurlers who have each looked strong at various points in 2025.
The Reds offense has gotten a huge boost from Will Benson, who has hit five homers in his last nine games. He's the reason why their offense has turned a corner.
However, he's a lefty who hasn't done well in lefty-lefty matchups. Three of the next four best Reds hitters in the last nine games are all well below average against lefties.
The matchup is totally against the Reds' offensive strengths and I can't justify backing this Pirates offense.
Pick: Under 8; Bet to Under 7.5 (play to -130)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from Run Line for this game.
Over/Under
As mentioned above, I see an edge on Game Totals with the best bet on unders.
Reds vs Pirates Betting Trends
