MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Yankees vs. White Sox, Padres vs. Braves, More Bets For Friday (May 13)
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.
- Fridays during the MLB season are always fun because they offer the opportunity to start the weekend on a high note.
- This Friday is no exception, as our staff has three best bets for Padres-Braves and Yankees-White Sox.
- Check out all three of our best bets for Friday's games below.
It might be Friday the 13th, but we’re looking for good luck with today’s MLB slate.
All 30 teams are in action today, but our three best bets for Friday’s slate are heavily focused on four of them — Padres vs. Braves and Yankees vs. White Sox.
Check out all of our best bets for today’s games below, and be sure to stop back tomorrow for even more Saturday picks.
MLB Odds & Picks
Padres vs. Braves
William Boor: Arguably the best pitching matchup of the Friday slate will take place in Atlanta, and I’m backing both pitchers to stifle opposing hitters. Both Yu Darvish and Max Fried have thrown the ball well this season, and a first five under 3.5 runs would have cashed in eight of their 12 combined starts.
Each offense is averaging roughly 2.5 runs per game through five innings, so we’ll need the pitchers to step up. So far this season, they have. Fried has pitched to a 2.68 ERA through six starts and yielded two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive outings.
Darvish’s 4.05 ERA doesn’t fully reflect how he’s really pitched because he got tagged for nine runs over 1 2/3 innings in his second start of the year. Since then, he’s spun four straight quality starts.
Home runs can blow up unders in a hurry, but both pitchers have done a good job of limiting the long ball (Fried 0.73 HR/9, Darvish 0.81 HR/9).
Darvish’s walk rate has ticked up a bit this year compared to last, but he’s also getting more groundouts and reducing balls in the air.
Fried has shown pinpoint command this season, walking just two through 37 innings. That, coupled with his 52.5% ground-ball rate gives me confidence that baserunners — and more importantly, runs — will be scarce early in Atlanta.
FanDuel is the only book I’ve seen offering this with plus money, so grab it there if you can. If not, I’d play it down to -110.
Padres vs. Braves
Jules Posner: The San Diego Padres are taking on the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves in a Friday night showdown.
The Padres have been rolling so far this season, but frankly, they’ve had a soft schedule to start the year. So far in 2022, the Padres have not won a series against a team over .500 since they beat the Diamondbacks in their opening series.
The Braves have struggled out of the gates but took two out of three games against the Padres in San Diego last month. They look to take another series at home.
After throwing six no-hit innings in his season debut, Yu Darvish has struggled on the road this season. His command has been an issue, but he’s also given up eight hits in each of his last two road starts.
The Braves have posted a 125 wRC+ at home against right-handers over the past two weeks. Pair that with Darvish’s road volatility and the Padres’ shaky bullpen, and it’s clear the Braves can carry a total.
Additionally, Max Fried has been weaker at home so far this season. However, the Padres have struggled on the road vs. LHPs so far this season, but a 7-7.5 run total seems to be low. That’s probably due to the name recognition of both starters.
I will be putting on my tin foil hat and taking the over in this Friday night matchup. Even if the total moves to 7.5, it feels like the over is the best play tonight.
Yankees vs. White Sox
Charlie DiSturco: The New York Yankees offense is in a rhythm, and Friday night will be no different with a dream matchup against Vince Velasquez.
The 29-year-old righty is a perfect fade candidate. While his ERA sits at 3.97, his xERA is nearly two runs higher (5.75) and opponents have an expected batting average of .286. Velasquez sits in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in barrel rate, expected slugging and average exit velocity — the perfect recipe for this Yankees offense to succeed.
The Bronx Bombers have definitely lived up to their moniker. They rank second in both wRC+ and wOBA and third in isolated power.
Aaron Judge is playing like an MVP candidate, and players like Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu have provided the perfect complement to the slugger, getting on base and consistently forcing the opposition into tough situations.
Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Yankees and the ace has been lights-out since being pulled in the second inning at Detroit in mid-April. Over his last three starts, he’s given up just one run over 19 innings.
Momentum has completely shifted toward the red-hot Yankees after last night’s bullpen meltdown from the White Sox when New York rallied for seven runs with two outs in the eighth en route to a 15-7 win.
Now, they draw Velasquez, who is by all accounts a below-average arm who struggles to limit hard contact and allows plenty of walks.
I think the Yankees offense continues to roll and am looking to back them on the three-way line through the first five innings on Friday night.
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