MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday: Our Best Bets for Royals vs. White Sox & Astros vs. Padres (Sept. 4)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Correa (right).
- Royals vs. White Sox and Astros vs. Padres stood out to us on Saturday night.
- Our team of MLB analysts have targeted two games on Saturday with great value for bettors.
- Check out their picks and breakdowns below.
College football might be kicking off in full force on Saturday, but baseball bettors have been out here grinding for months now.
At this point in the season, bettors know who they can feel good about backing in MLB and who they should feel good about fading. That’s a theme from our best bets on Saturday.
The first matchup features the White Sox, who have been fantastic all season against inferior opposition. The second is a matchup of postseason hopefuls, although the Padres are doing all they can to make sure they aren’t playing past the first weekend in October.
MLB Odds & Picks
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Royals vs. White Sox
DJ James: The Chicago White Sox get to face another lefty, against whom they own a 116 wRC+ with 15 homers since the beginning of August. Tim Anderson is not available, since he is on the injured list with a hamstring injury, but José Abreu has ripped the cover off of the ball. Leury García has been a solid fill-in for Anderson with more regular playing time. The return of Yasmani Grandal has brought some much-needed pop to the lineup. Luis Robert has a .520 SLG off of southpaws in that timeframe, as well.
Unfortunately, Daniel Lynch ranks in the bottom half of the league in every peripheral category. He allows an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph and a 43.5% hard-hit percentage. This does not bode well for him, given the power throughout the Chicago lineup from this side of the pitching rubber.
The Sox send Reynaldo López to the hill, and he has been phenomenal since being brought back to the bigs. He only allows a 31.3% hard-hit percentage and his xERA is 2.54. Since he throws an average fastball of 96 mph, the Royals will struggle. They only maintain a .304 xwOBA off pitches that come in at 96 mph or higher since the trade deadline.
Astros vs. Padres
Matt Trebby: This pitching matchup is about as even as you’ll get in MLB.
Framber Valdez has been fantastic when healthy for the Astros this season with a 2.91 ERA and 3.48 xFIP. Former Houston right-hander Joe Musgrove, meanwhile, has a 2.85 ERA and 3.45 xFIP.
Both starters are extremely reliable and big reasons for their teams’ success this season.
This game is listed as close to a pick’em, so the edge here goes to the team that isn’t fading heavily down the stretch. We’re going to back the one with the best lineup in MLB.
Even without Yordan Alvarez in the lineup last night, Houston got the better of Jake Arrieta and the Padres bullpen to take the series opener. The Astros have a team OPS of .784 over the past 15 days, which ranks sixth in MLB.
The Padres are dead last at .594. They’re looking highly unlikely to qualify for the postseason at this point, especially with the easy schedule the Reds are going to face down the stretch.