MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: 2 Best Bets for Sunday, Including Rockies vs. Giants, Dodgers vs. Mets (August 15)
Matthew Stockman / Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Gray
Our analysts have found angle on two different games on the slate, with value picks on Rockies vs. Giants and Dodgers vs. Mets.
Here are our two best bets from Sunday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rockies vs. Giants
Collin Whitchurch: It’s not a surprise to see the Giants as such heavy favorites over the Rockies, particularly in San Francisco, where the Giants have been superb, and when considering Colorado’s road woes.
I think the Rockies are a live dog here, however, as they have a favorable pitching matchup with Jon Gray going up against Alex Wood.
Gray has rebounded from a miserable 2020 season with a solid 3.85 ERA that’s backed up by his peripherals. Gray’s go-to secondary pitch is a slider that he throws nearly 38 percent of the time. The Giants are, simply put, terrible at hitting sliders. Their weighted run value against the pitch is -25.3, which is 27th in baseball.
Alex Wood has had a rough go of it after a really solid start to his career in San Francisco, and, while the Rockies have been slightly below-average against southpaws overall this season (94 wRC+), lefties are actually their better split, so they should find some success today.
There are actually three bets I like here to varying degrees. I like the first five innings under 4.5 at -115 but no further, and I like the Rockies first five innings run line and moneyline. You can play the run line +0.5 at +110, and I like that at any number with a plus in front of it, and I’ll also take a small stab at the moneyline at +156 and down to +145.
Dodgers vs. Mets
Collin Whitchurch: This is very much a contrarian play given the solid Sunday Night Baseball pitching matchup of Max Scherzer vs. Carlos Carrasco. The Dodgers have won the first two games of this series, including a 2-1 result on Saturday in another pitching duel between Walker Buehler and Taijuan Walker.
I don’t yet trust Carrasco to deliver in a big moment for New York. He’s yet to throw more than 4 1/3 innings or 62 pitches in his three starts since returning from the injured list, and was roughed up by the Nationals of all teams his last time out.
The Mets’ bullpen has been above-average for most of the season, but it simply can’t stop walking guys, with a 9.7% walk rate for the season and a 10.5% clip in August that is the seventh-highest in the majors. That’s bad news against a patient and dangerous Dodgers lineup, assuming Carrasco is limited once again.
The big risk here is in Scherzer throwing a gem, something that’s always entirely possible. He’s only allowed multiple runs three times in his last 10 starts. The Los Angeles bullpen is in good shape even with Joe Kelly on the IL. Dave Roberts rested Kenley Jansen on Saturday so he should be ready to go.
I like LA here, obviously, but I like the over more as I think it’s been set too low between these two pitchers. The Dodgers should have little trouble with Carrasco and the Mets’ bullpen, so I’m betting on the Mets being able to scratch across at least a few against Scherzer & Co. to bring us a winner. I like over 7.5 at -115, but no further.