MLB Odds & Picks: 4 Best Bets for Sunday, Including White Sox vs. Astros (June 19)
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez (Astros)
While there are 15 games in action, this best bets piece will focus on the two matchups mentioned above in addition to two other affairs.
So without further ado, here’s our picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Tony Sartori: This is one of those games where the over is a must-play and the final score could be 2-1. That being said, there’s absolutely no reason to not take the over in this contest.
Zach Eflin has struggled mightily both on the road and against Washington, Jackson Tetreault looked terrible in his MLB debut, each bullpen is bottom-10 in the league, and both lineups have been crushing against right-handed pitchers recently.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Jules Posner: In any other situation the Jays in plus money has appeal.
However, the Yankees are simply too good — or at least the matchup gives the Yankees too much of an edge.
The Jays will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound against the Yankees’ Luis Severino. Again, the Yankees have been unstoppable. Literally. It seems like every time the Yankees are stopped, they go on to be unstopped for at least nine games.
The Yankees are looking to win their 10 straight game … again. They are just too good at baseball.
The Yankees moneyline is available at -145 at the time of this writing. If it stays there, take it.
If it goes beyond the -150 threshold, you may as well take the runline because, why not?
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Sean Zerillo: San Diego represents my most considerable projected edge on the Sunday slate. I set the Padres’ moneyline for the first five innings (F5) at -170 (63% implied) and bet their overnight F5 line at -130 (56.5% implied), an anticipated 6.5% edge between my projected number and the listed odds.
Blake Snell has underperformed relative to his expected metrics (3.75 xERA, 4.12 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA) with a 5.04 ERA, thanks to a 61% strand rate (76% career). And despite a slight dip in his strikeout rate this season, Snell’s swinging strike rate (13.7%) and chase rate align with his career averages.
Antonio Senzatela remains a pitcher to fade based on his indicators (5.98 xERA, 4.24 xFIP, 4.74 SIERA). Amongst 122 qualified starters (min. 40 innings) this season, Senzatela ranks 117th in strikeout minus walk rate or K-BB%. That is his lowest level since 2019 when Senzatela pitched to a 6.71 ERA and a 6.00 xERA in 25 appearances.
Senzatela’s home run rate (0.57 HR/9 and 6.5% HR/FB) is nearly half his career norm (1.02 and 12.6%, respectively), and he should eventually regress toward those averages. However, his .407 BABIP (.319 career) will inevitably improve too.
While I view the Padres’ bullpen as superior to the Rockies’ relievers — by roughly three-quarters of a run per game — I project the starting pitching differential closer to a two-run gap (per nine innings) in favor of San Diego.
As a result, while I only show slight value on the Padres’ full-game moneyline, I see a much more substantial edge on their first-half line.
You can bet the Padres’ F5 moneyline up to -156 (61% implied) — at a two percent edge compared to my projection — but I would begin to reduce my risk to a flat unit (rather than betting to win a unit) as the edge dwindles, starting at -140 or higher.
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
Tanner McGrath: I truly trust Cristian Javier’s abilities.
I trust him far more than I trust Michael Kopech, even though I like Kopech as a pitcher.
Javier has better stuff and better expected metrics, plus Javier is much more consistent than Kopech, who is never a sure bet to throw a gem.
Plus, Houston’s lineup is far superior to Chicago’s — especially with the White Sox’s injuries.
And in a matchup between two fastball-heavy pitchers, the Astros rank ninth in Weighted Fastball Runs Created (20) while the White Sox rank 26th (-18.7).
The Action Network’s Sean Zerillo projects we should bet the Astros F5 ML up to -162, and I’ll be on that side up until around -165.