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Phillies vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Trends Point to Value on Total (Sunday, June 19)

Phillies vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Trends Point to Value on Total (Sunday, June 19) article feature image

Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Vierling & Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Phillies Odds-200
Nationals Odds+170
Over/Under9.5 (-115/-105)
Time12:05 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fifth and final game of this NL East interdivisional series, as the Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies.

The average runs scored per game in this series has been 9.25.

Will we get yet another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the pitching turn it around?

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Eflin + Struggling Bullpen = Runs Against Phils

The Philadelphia Phillies enter this contest in great form, as they have won five straight and 15 of their last 17 games. Over those 17 games, there have been 10 or more runs scored in 10 of them (59%).

I expect this trend to continue with right-hander Zach Eflin slated to take the mound for Philadelphia. Through 11 starts this season, Eflin is 2-4 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

Eflin is a much different pitcher on the road this season and could be a fade-worthy candidate in this game. Through his five road starts, Eflin is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

There have been 10 or more total runs scored in seven of his last nine starts (78%).

Following Eflin is a struggling bullpen.

Since May 1, the Phillies’ relief pitching ranks just 17th in the league in ERA, 21st in BA, 14th in SLG and 22nd in wOBA.

However, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support, as they’re facing off against right-hander Jackson Tetreault.

When facing right-handers on the road, Philadelphia ranks seventh in the league in BA, fifth in SLG, third in OPS and third in wOBA since the beginning of May.

Can Nats’ Tetreault Slow Down Opponent?

Just like the Phillies, the Washington Nationals enter this contest following a flurry of high-scoring games. There have now been 10 or more total runs scored in 11 of their last 16 contests (69%).

As I mentioned above, Tetreault is slated to take the mound for the Nationals. Tetreault has had a tough start to his career, as he allowed seven runs on nine hits through four innings in his lone outing.

His metrics were as brutal as you would expect them to be after that performance, as Tetreault possesses a .562 xwOBA, .412 xBA and .912 xSLG.

That game resulted in 14 total runs scored.

Backing up Tetreault is a terrible bullpen. Since May 1, the Nationals’ relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA, 25th in BA, 21st in SLG and 24th in wOBA.

That being said, this Washington pitching staff should get plenty of run support, as it’s slated to go against Eflin.

Through 62 career plate appearances against Eflin, this current Nationals roster boasts a .304 BA, .446 SLG and .356 wOBA.

Since the beginning of May, the Nationals rank eighth in the league in BA, 15th in SLG, 13th in OPS and 13th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.

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Phillies-Nationals Pick

This is one of those games where the over is a must-play and the final score could be 2-1. That being said, there’s absolutely no reason to not take the over in this contest.

Eflin has struggled mightily both on the road and against Washington, Tetreault looked terrible in his MLB debut, each bullpen is bottom-10 in the league, and both lineups have been crushing against right-handed pitchers recently.

Additionally, the trends for each club point to the over.

Pick: Phillies/Nationals o9.5 (-115) | Play up to (-125)

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