MLB Odds & Picks: 6 Best Bets For Tuesday, Including Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- With a full slate of 15 games on the docket on Tuesday, our staff dives into six of their best bets from five particular matchups.
- Two picks come from the pitching duel between Aaron Nola (Phillies) and Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks).
- Meanwhile, what about F5 bets across the board?
Our staff has six different best bets across five games, so check out all our picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Doug Ziefel: While a couple of his last outings have been rough, Kevin Gausman has still been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he’s in line to bounce back tonight.
Gausman comes into this outing leading the majors in FIP at 2.01, which is a sizable difference from his season ERA of 3.15. Those numbers make Gausman amongst the elite, whereas the Cubs’ lineup is just in the middle of the pack.
The Cubs rank 14th in first-five innings runs per game on the road this season, with an average of 2.38 runs. They are also 17th in team batting average and 19th wRC+.
On the other side of this matchup, we have Marcus Stroman. The Cardinals touched him up in his last outing, but Stroman has been excellent since returning from injury in July.
He has an ERA of 0.89 in the month of July, and while his most recent outing ballooned his season ERA to 4.10, his FIP of 3.84 is a much more accurate representation of how he’s pitched this season.
Toronto is a problematic lineup to face, but Stroman is the guy to counteract the Blue Jays’ power, as he has been one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the game.
As a result, he and Gausman should limit the scoring for the first half of this one.
Tanner McGrath: Matt Manning has come back from injury attempting to steal the title of “Detroit’s Young Ace” from Tarik Skubal. He’s doing well so far.
Manning is a big-boy righty with solid stuff. He can still tunnel his fastball and slider well, and the two pitches have combined for a -9 Run Value over just seven starts. All-in-all, Manning has pitched to a 2.37 ERA and a 3.23 FIP, improving his K-BB% to 14.4% (6.2% in 2021).
I think Manning shuts the Mariners down on Tuesday night, especially given the Mariners have been just a league-average offense in August.
I’m not buying what George Kirby is selling, given his lackluster batted-ball statistics. But this is a pathetic Tigers lineup. Not a single Detroit batter in the regular nine-man lineup has an OPS+ above 100, and they rank dead last in wRC+ on the season (79).
Given my distrust of Kirby, I will most likely bet the Tigers at the heavy plus-money price. It’s also nice that the Tigers have won four of the last five matchups against the Mariners.
However, I think the much stronger play is the under. I believe in Manning, the Tigers’ offense is terrible and both teams rank in the top 10 in reliever ERA this season (Seattle 3.35, Detroit 3.38).
Jules Posner: Brady Singer has very quietly been putting together a career year for the Royals, and he gets the ball against two fade-worthy opponents in Lucas Giolito and the White Sox.
Giolito has struggled this season — especially at home, where he has a 6.71 ERA and a FIP of 4.06. While he is due for some positive regression, he has still struggled to find consistency this season.
He has fared well against the Royals so far this year, but there still is a high level of volatility considering his home struggles.
While the Royals have the worst offense on the road against RHP over the past two weeks, their last road series saw them go through the top of the Twins’ rotation and then head to an unfriendly hitter’s park, Tropicana Field, to take on the Rays.
That said, the Royals’ offense should be due for some positive regression, as they get a favorable matchup against the White Sox and Giolito. The Royals’ first-five moneyline still sits in plus money, and that should be the play, as it presents good value and factors out the Royals’ atrocious bullpen.
Play it as long as it’s in plus money.
Charlie DiSturco: Bullpen implosions remain a constant for the Pirates, as they once again lost as a hefty underdog in the late innings against the Brewers.
And while I’m staying away from a full-game bet on the Bucs, I believe they’re undervalued over the first five innings against their NL Central foe.
Jason Alexander takes the mound in his first start since mid-July. The right-hander remains a constant fade for me, as advanced metrics aren’t too keen on the 29-year-old rookie.
Across 14 games this season, Alexander has a 5.26 ERA, and expected indicators sit around that number. He often has issues with control — a near double-digit walk rate — and doesn’t generate swings-and-misses. In fact, he’s in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in strikeout rate.
There’s not much Alexander does right. He doesn’t induce soft contact and relies on his sinker to escape jams. Opponents have a .284 xBA against Alexander and a xSLG of .438.
His lone outing against Pittsburgh came in relief, where he gave up two runs over two innings.
Opposite him is Mitch Keller, who has a Jekyll & Hyde tendency in 2022. He’s made strides in his fourth big-league season, with expected indicators sitting in the low-to-mid 4s. Keller has cut down on his walk rate and has nearly cut down his Hard Hit Rate by 10% from a season ago.
His last outing against the Atlanta Braves was cut short after seven runs — just two earned — as the Pittsburgh defense spiraled Keller into an implosion. But I believe things will be different against Milwaukee.
Since the All-Star break, Keller has a 4.34 ERA and has been quite unlucky, with a .333 BABIP compared to a .261 xBA.
Like I mentioned earlier, I don’t trust the Pirates on the full-game moneyline, but I think there’s enough of an edge here between Keller and Alexander where Pittsburgh is underrated.
I’ll continue to fade Alexander, and I think even the Pirates’ offense has what it takes to force an early exit for the right-hander. I’d back their F5 ML all the way down to +120, and I would look at their F5 TT over of a juiced 1.5 at DraftKings.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Nicholas Martin: Nola has effectively thrown a four-pitch mix all season long, which has helped to generate a strong K-rate and elite chase rate.
Those areas of success have remained consistent of late, as Nola has averaged 9.33 strikeouts per game over his last three games, including two contests versus the Mets.
Nola has consistently used his elite curveball as a put-away pitch all season long, and hitters have chased 51% of his breaking balls down and out of the zone during the 2022 season.
That area of dominance could quite likely continue Tuesday against a Diamondbacks side that holds the fourth-worst pitch value in baseball against the curveball.
Nola has gone over a strikeout total of 6.5 in seven of his last eight and in 10 of his last 12 games entering today’s matchup. He gets a middle of the pack opponent for that to continue.
Arizona has actually only struck-out 21.4% of the time versus right-handed pitching throughout the 2022 season, but its lack of overall productivity should still make for a reasonable matchup for Nola to get deep into the game.
This is a spot where the Phillies would likely to love to get seven strong innings out of their ace.
At -115 for Nola to go over 6.5 Ks, I believe we have some strong value, and I would play 6.5 down to -125.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
D.J. James: Aaron Nola versus Zac Gallen is a sneaky good matchup for one of Tuesday’s West Coast games, as the Phillies make the trip to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks.
Both starting pitchers in this game have elite stuff. Aaron Nola owns a 2.61 xERA against a 3.08 ERA, so he has, in fact, been unlucky even while pitching well. Gallen has a 2.66 ERA against a 3.43 xERA, which is still solid, but a bit unlucky.
These two teams are neck-and-neck against right-handed pitching in the batter’s box this month. They rank eighth and ninth in wRC+ at 105 and 104, respectively, so they are essentially even.
Arizona holds a slight edge, with a 4.03 xFIP out of the bullpen against Philly’s 4.10 mark.
The Arizona lineup is a bit more top-heavy with Stone Garrett, Emmanuel Rivera and Christian Walker at a xwOBA of .390+, while Philly’s lineup is stronger throughout.
That said, Arizona strikes out around 8% less against righties in August, which should provide it an advantage. This should eat into Nola’s pitch count. He will have to nibble around the plate more often with a high-contact team.
Expect the Diamondbacks to remain even with Gallen on the mound and defeat Philly in a close one later in the game.
Take Arizona from +116 to -110.