MLB Odds and Picks (Friday, July 31): Red Sox vs. Yankees Predictions

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Odds as of Friday at 5:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The greatest rivalry in sports is renewed Friday night as Boston heads to Yankee Stadium to take on New York. Boston’s start to the season has been riddled with bad pitching and high-scoring games. Through their first seven games, the Red Sox have a team ERA of 5.83, but an xFIP of 4.30, meaning they’ve been a tad unlucky.

It’s been business as usual for the Yankees, starting off the season 4-1. As of this moment Tampa Bay seems to be their only challenger for first place in the AL East. They’ll need to take advantage of their rivals, as the Rays have the Orioles this weekend.

I would like to mention that I am a Red Sox fan, but this article will be 100% unbiased.

Boston Red Sox

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Despite losing Mookie Betts in the offseason, the Red Sox lineup still has a lot of firepower. Through their first seven games, the Red Sox have a wOBA of .338 and a wRC+ of 114, both of which rank in the top 10 to start the season.

Boston was halfway decent against left-handed pitching last season, with a wOBA of .328 and a wRC+ of 100. Much of that can be contributed to J.D. Martinez, who absolutely mashed lefties last season. He ranked first in MLB in just about every category.

If you are someone who plays DFS, he’s probably worth the price on Friday.

Red Sox Projected Starter

Ryan Weber, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Ryan Weber is a fringe major leaguer at best. He’s been back and forth between MLB and Triple A for four years now. He’s a sinker ball guy and he doesn’t use it very effectively. Usually, successful sinker ball pitchers produce high ground ball rates, meaning they’re keeping the ball underneath the hitters’ swing plane. Weber produced a 48.6% ground ball rate in 2019, which was the lowest of his career. Weber isn’t going to overpower any lineup — he’s a change-of-pace guy — as none of his pitches average over 90 mph. He’ll need to mix his pitches well because the Yankees didn’t struggle with any pitch types last year.

New York Yankees

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Yankees offense has been middle of the road to start the season, with a .307 wOBA and 102 wRC+. Their series with the Phillies got called off due to the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak, so they had the pleasure of beating up on the Orioles over the last two games. New York’s lineup is loaded yet again this season, as they were able to keep their core together over the offseason.

Yankees Projected Starter 

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant) (2017)

Jordan Montgomery hasn’t pitched a full season for the Yankees since 2017. He suffered injuries the past two seasons, so he’s been on the mound in limited fashion recently. He primarily uses his curveball and sinker to get batters out. While his curveball has been effective — producing a 42.8% whiff rate in 2017 — his sinker is a different story. In 2017, hitters feasted on Montgomery’s sinker, posting a .342 batting average and a .414 wOBA. The Red Sox ranked seventh against curveballs last season, so Montgomery will have to utilize his sinker a lot to navigate a loaded Red Sox lineup.

Bullpens

The Red Sox bullpen is actually a lot better than most people think. Their two best relievers, Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes, are two quality arms that are capable of closing out the 8th and 9th innings. The Yankees have one of the best 7th-9th inning bullpen combos in the league in Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman, who has yet to pitch this season due to COVID-19. However, beyond those three it’s a bunch of average relievers.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Projections and Pick

Originally published Friday morning.

Based on my projections, the starting pitching is about even in this game. I think Montgomery and the Yankees are overpriced at home, so I am going to back the Sox at +190 (DraftKings) and would bet them down to +148.

Pick: Red Sox +190

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