MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Friday: Our Best Bets, Including Angels vs. Red Sox, Cubs vs. Tigers & Reds vs. Rockies (May 14)
Ron Schwane/Getty Images. Pictured: Wade Miley
- Looking for action on MLB this Friday night? Our baseball betting analysts are here to help.
- Find their favorite picks below featuring the Angels at Red Sox, Cubs at Tigers and Reds at Rockies.
MLB Odds & Picks
Angels at Red Sox
Stuckey: Nick Pivetta is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA over his first seven starts in Boston.
How did this happen? Did the Red Sox magically fix the ex-Phillie, who had an ERA north of 5 during his time in the city of brotherly love?
Not really. Pivetta has just had Lady Luck on his side.
All of the usual suspects are artificially in his favor, such as BABIP and strand rate. He’s still striking out fewer than nine batters per 9 innings, and his control has been a major issue with more than 5 walks per 9. The fly balls will soon turn into homers and the walks will come back to bite him. The regression monster looms in a major way.
On the other hand, Griffin Canning has been much better than his surface numbers indicate, and I’ve liked what I’ve seen from watching him. Ultimately, this price is a tad too high as the market might be just a little bit inflated on the Red Sox after their hot start. Getting to fade Pivetta is just an added bonus.
Cubs at Tigers
Tanner McGrath: Every time Tarik Skubal is on the mound, I’m prepared to play the over.
It’s been a profitable strategy. In fact, the Tigers are 5-0 to the over in Skubal’s five starts this season. He’s posted a 5.67 ERA and a 1.6 WHIP during that stretch, and his 7.38 xERA suggest he’s due for even more regression.
Skubal’s struggles can be surmised in two stats: His strikeout rate is down 8% from last season, and he leads all qualified pitchers in barrel percentage (20.7%). He’s not missing bats and he’s allowing a lot of solid contact.
Meanwhile, the Cubs rank fifth in the league in barrel percentage and should be looking to tee off on Skubal today.
In the other dugout, the Tigers lineup has been red-hot. The Tigers have won four straight games, scoring 23 runs in the process. Plus, Detroit boasts the second-best OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in baseball over the past seven days.
Chicago’s Jake Arrieta has been vulnerable, too. While he posted five straight quality starts to the season, he’s on pace to post the highest barrel percentage (8.5%) and average exit velocity (90.5 mph) of his career. I’m expecting to more starts like Arrieta’s most recent outing, when he allowed seven runs over 3 1/3 innings to the Reds.
I played the over 9 at -102 on FanDuel and am looking to bet it to -110.
Reds at Rockies
Jeff Hicks: Despite being roughed up through a handful of starts in 2021, Rockies starter German Marquez has allowed first inning runs to only the Giants.
Meanwhile, the Reds are not very good on the road so far. And while a trip to Denver cures what fails offenses, Cincy sports an 85 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching on the road. Marquez’s peripherals also say his 5.49 ERA is due for positive regression.
Wade Miley has had mixed results in the first and put a halt to a first inning scoring streak of three games. The 34-year old has limited opposing batters to a slash line of .100/.149/.114 in away games this season, including his no-hitter last time out.
Even with positive home splits, the Rockies possess only a 106 wRC+ and have the third highest groundball-to-flyout ration at home against southpaws.